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Senate Breakers Report October 21, 2014
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Since I last looked at the Senate races 11 days ago, the picture of the
home stretch has started to come a little more clearly into focus,
albeit with a frustratingly large number of undecided voters still
showing up in the polls even in states that have already begun early
voting. The high number of undecideds is one of several reasons to
question the reliability of this year’s polls, although the most likely
reason for a surplus of undecideds is that some of those folks are just
going to end up staying home – a result that would be good news for GOP
candidates who have pulled out to a polling lead (as in Colorado, Iowa
and Kentucky) but not so good for candidates in North Carolina and New
Hampshire who are crouched in striking distance but still need to be
persuading people. However, if you look at the broader trends in the
presidential approval and generic ballot polling, you can see that
things are again looking up for Republicans – if they can only
capitalize on those opportunities.
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