CORONAVIRUS STATS

Submitted by: William Bissell

Coronavirus stats QUOTE What is the death rate from these viruses? MERS   30% SARS   10% SARS-CoV-2   2-3% (but may decrease as more milder cases are diagnosed). Seasonal flu as a reference has a death rate of 0.1% QUOTE Dear patients, With all the Coronavirus news I wanted to send an update about what is currently known and my recommendations. Presently there is no active Coronavirus transmission in the US- I do not expect this to remain the case. If active transmission occurs in the US, follow the same guidelines as you would for a seasonal flu outbreak. This includes hand hygiene, avoiding areas with large crowds and avoiding ill contacts. Wearing masks is more effective in preventing transmission from ill patients than it is preventing exposure in healthy ones. However if there were an outbreak and wearing a mask keeps people from frequently touching their face, it is a worthwhile measure even if not ill. I have been asked about issues regarding supply chains, particularly for medications. Though we are not recommending stockpiling meds, it is not a bad idea to change Rxs from a 1 month supply to a 3 month supply. And of course having extra water and other staples- ie milk products with long expirations- is always a good idea (given that we live in an active earthquake zone). Though in development, we currently do not have any vaccines or medications against this virus. Tamiflu and antibiotics are not effective. If any symptoms of fever > 100F and/or shortness of breath develop seek medical care early. At this time treatment is supportive care. Most cases (> 80 %) are mild. There have been severe cases and some deaths especially in the more vulnerable patient groups such as the elderly or immunocompromised. This number may seem larger because early on in the course of a new infection it is the more severe cases that are diagnosed, and milder cases go undiagnosed (most people do not seek care when they have mild colds). I hope this is helpful Below is a more detailed summary provided by Dr Razavi. Coronaviruses are a large group of viruses, mostly existing in animals, but 7 types now exist in humans. Of the seven, 4 cause mild cold type or gastrointestinal symptoms. The other 3 can cause more severe respiratory illnesses such as pneumonia. These are the following.  1. SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome)  2. MERS (middle east respiratory syndrome)  3. The new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (the name of the virus) COVID-19 (referring to the illness). Coronaviruses have a core of genetic material which is wrapped by an envelope covered by protein spikes which make it look like a crown. SARS-CoV-2 was first noted when a cluster of pneumonia patients with contact to the seafood and animal market were hospitalized in Wuhan. The genetic material has been sequenced by China and has been shared with the US and other countries.  This is helpful in developing tests, vaccines, and treatment. Where did the virus come from? All 3 have crossed over from animals to humans presumably due to close contact and/or  due to some mutation in the virus which allowed it to make that cross over. MERS originated from camels in Saudi Arabia in 2012, few cases have popped up recently. SARS was from civet cats in China in 2002 and disappeared in 2004. SARS-CoV-2 is presumed from bats in China via other animals and then to humans. What is the death rate from these viruses? MERS - 30% SARS - 10% SARS-CoV-2 - 2-3% (but may decrease as more milder cases are diagnosed). Seasonal flu as a reference has a death rate of 0.1% So why haven't you heard more about MERS which has a significantly higher death rate. Perhaps it is due to the rapidness of the infection rate of SARS-CoV-2 which is spreading quickly and infecting larger number of people than the others did. How infectious is the virus?  For the first 1000 people to be infected... MERS took 2.5 years SARS took  4-5 months SARS-CoV-2  took 1 month How is it transmitted? Mainly from respiratory droplets within 6 feet. There is no data on how long it may stay on surfaces but based on SARS data is it may be for 2 days. What are the symptoms? Symptoms are mainly respiratory related, and vary from mild to severe, starting with fever, cough, shortness of breath and progressing  to pneumonia and death. The people most susceptible to the more severe symptoms are older people, or those with diseases such as diabetes, asthma or other immunocompromised conditions. What is the incubation and the course of the disease? The average time before getting the disease after exposure is 5 days but can vary from 2 days to 2 weeks. For those who get worse, Day 4 is when there may be escalation to shortness of breath and pneumonia. Day 7 is when they may be critically ill. Those who survive it are usually in recovery by day 11. How is it diagnosed? There is a PCR Test that uses CRISPR to detect the genetic information of the virus. There was concern that we may not have adequate number of testing kits in the US if more cases develop rapidly, however, per CDC we may now have enough testing kits available. How is it treated? Treatment is mainly supportive, ie, meds to lower fever, administering fluids or oxygen if needed. One medication, remdesivir from Gilead,  has shown promise.  This is now in trials in China and in US. It was used in January in a patient on a compassionate basis and significant improvement was seen. The medication originally was intended for management of ebola virus. No antibiotics or other antivirals including Tamiflu have been proven to be effective. It is best to seek care early if fever, cough, shortness of breath develop. Is there a vaccine? No vaccines yet, but an experimental one from Moderna (mRNA-1273)  is about to go into trial in April. It is assumed that results would be known by August. It may take 12 - 18 months before a vaccine becomes widely available if all goes without any glitches. It is not true (so far) that the virus is mutating too fast for a vaccine to be developed. How do you prevent getting the illness? Take the same precautions that you would for avoiding the flu. Washing hands, using alcohol based hand cleansers, covering your mouth and nose when respiratory droplets may be coming at you as in a sneeze or cough. Don't touch your face after touching possibly infected surfaces. If you have other underlying illnesses you may want to avoid any unnecessary activity in large gatherings like sports arenas or use a mask if present in those settings. The WHO and CDC have not made any recommendations about limiting travel. Current statistics as of this week. 80,238 cases inn 34 countries with 2700 deaths. In this study in JAMA the age distribution shows that majority of the cases 87% occurred in adults 30-79 years old, 10% were in patients 29 years and younger and 3% at 80 years and older. The case severity distribution was 80% mild, 15% severe, 5% critical. Some links for more info. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.cnet.com/how-to/which-face-masks-protect-against-coronavirus/ https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html —Dr. S NEXT one will be really deadly as I think this a Bio-weapon Beta test to see how it spreads, what are the vaccines. how it shuts down the various economies, what the social reactions are. Military response, Big Phama response, health care professional progress-reaction. Who dies, symptoms,  Incubation time frames. Resistant natural products and how fast will it spread,.   These beta tests give the globalist CDC types all the knowledge they need to go into another virulent strain each time. If it was an accident or natural cause why not Nigeria, Mexico City, Bombay? And if they wanted it stopped, they would move heaven and earth to stop it.  But Nope, this group slipped thru, That crowd broke out, Wink Wink, We released another group and forgot about some other cases... Ooops.. Sure....