Netanyahu’s “Containment” Strategy for Hamas Is Bankrupt - First Holes in His Authority……
20 October 2018
20 October 2018
Each has a population of more than 300,000.
This fruitless debate strongly betokened the collapse of the “containment”strategy which the prime minister and Chief of Staff Lt. General Gady Eisenkot have pursued doggedly as the centrepiece of their security policies.
Israel’s prime ministers traditionally stand or fall on their success in two areas: Security, the overriding top priority, followed by the economy and a clean slate on corruption.
So the failure of “containment” in the face of Hamas’ escalating violence marks the onset of Netanyahu’s downward path after a record-breaking 10 years as Israel’s prime minister.
Seemingly trivial events often signal a leader’s unforeseen downfall. It is therefore important to elucidate the elements of his containment doctrine:
• Israel’s legendary military prowess.
• Cutting edge high-tech capabilities, which are also incorporated in the sophisticated weapons systems produced by Israel.
• High-grade intelligence skills.
• A thriving economy.
• Vibrant military, economic and intelligence pacts with the United States.
Up until mid-2016, Netanyahu was seen by many Israelis as the wizard who had welded those five elements into a powerful mechanism for bringing the country great political, security and economic benefits.
Much of his popularity derived from the sense that he broke through the wall isolating Israel from its Arab neighbours for decades.
This was achieved by forging - often clandestine - military, intelligence and economic ties with important Middle East powers, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.
Israelis had begun to feel welcome in a region which had been hostile for so long - a sense that Netanyahu’s predecessors had never managed to instil.
Owing to wide popular trust in his policies, Bibi was not challenged by and large when he advocated the application of Israel’s military capabilities only as a last resort against extreme threats, such as a sword hanging over its sovereignty or territorial integrity.
Lesser threats would be dismantled by wise diplomatic tactics with Washington’s backing.
The prime minister took good care to coordinate his tactics and military action, when necessary, with the US administration (even in the days of Barack Obama).
When three years ago, Russia deployed substantial military strength in Syria, Netanyahu lost no time in cultivating smooth working relations with President Vladimir Putin.
Many Israelis were confident that their government was in good standing not just in Washington and with informal Arab allies, but also in Moscow.
Some saw great advantage in the diplomatic advances made by the Netanyahu government without recourse to military action or involving the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) in local wars.
During most of his decade in power, therefore, Israel was at peace, while other armies, including those of the United States and Russia, were embroiled in local wars and suffered casualties.
This calm was marred only by frequent terrorist encroachments from the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.
In 2014, after eight years of rocket fire, Netanyahu sent the IDF into Gaza for a short, limited operation called “Defensive Shield.”
After that, southern Israel enjoyed a respite until Hamas was ready to launch its next reign of terror in March 2018.
By then, Netanyahu and General Eisenkot’s use of containment had become an immovable fixture of national security.
It had also become so rigid that it is hanging over their heads like a Sword of Damocles, because the security misses during Netanyahu’s watch werepiling up against him:
1. Israel missed curtailing Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
2. Even after friendly Donald Trump was installed in the White House, the Netanyahu government abstained from impeding Iran’s expansionist steps in Israel’s Middle East and Red Sea backyards.
3. No limits were placed on Hizballah’s growing military might in Lebanon and Syria.
4. The IDF fell short of rooting out Iran’s deepening military grip on Syria.
5. In eight months, Israel failed abysmally to put a stop to the organised violence waged by Hamas against the troops holding the Israeli-Gaza border fence and the half-a-million people living across this border in southern Israel.
Facing no real restraints, Palestinian terrorist groups ramped up the violence continuously.
On Wednesday, October 17, they launched two upgraded Tornado-G Grad rockets, fitted with enlarged warheads packed with 70-80 kilos of explosives, from the Gaza Strip against Beersheba and Rishon Letzion.[pictured above]
Those five missteps derived from the prime minister and his army chiefs becoming prisoners of their doctrine of containment, which bars the application of military force to solve problems.
At most, the air force may be assigned to surgical operations.
Not only Hamas, but Iran, Hizballah and Syria are factoring Israel’s military passivity into their calculations for gaining ground on Israel’s borders.
At the same time, while many Israelis were happy to see IDF troops kept out of harm’s way, their confidence in Netanyahu’s decision began to slip after his security cabinet held back from ordering an effective response to Hamas’ arrogant claim of victory against an Israeli army tied down to a defensive posture.
This slide in confidence has begun to cut into the popular faith in Netanyahu.
Even if in the coming days, he decides to make good on his repeated pledge of “a powerful strike” against Hamas, it may be too late to restore this faith.
More and more people are looking forward to the next election in November 2019 - or even pressing to bring it forward - grumbling that a decade is long enough for one man at the helm and it is time for change.
While the long-running police probes against Netanyahu and his family, on suspicion of minor bribe-taking charges, made few inroads on his popularity or were not taken too seriously, today they are gaining resonance from wide disenchantment over the Gaza fiasco.
Developing rapidly……….
Putin will see Bolton in Moscow on Monday......
October 19, 2018
October 19, 2018
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that a meeting is being prepared for visiting US National Security Adviser John Bolton with President Vladimir Putin when he visits Moscow on Monday and Tuesday.
He will also see Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev. Bolton this week announced plans to travel on October 20 to Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.
More than 10,000 Palestinian Rioters Hurl 33 Improvised Bombs at Israeli Troops…..
October19, 2018
October19, 2018
Yet Israeli spokesmen insisted that the Palestinian riot on the Gaza border this Friday, October 19, was the “quietest in seven months.”
The IDF spokesman commented that “most of the rioters kept their distance from the border fence and Hamas was there to curb the violence.”
He went on to say, “There were nonetheless cases of explosives, grenades, attempted border crossings and various acts of terror. Our forces took preventive measures. This is not a situation we are prepared to accept. We expect the terror to cease.”
This statement came after Israeli officials tried hard to downplay the outbreak, during which at least three gangs pushed their way across the border, one of them torching a military vehicle, before they were driven back with tear gas and live fire by ramped-up Israeli forces defending the border.
Palestinians claimed 117 injured and one killed in the clashes with Israeli troops.
The message running through official Israeli comments was that Hamas needs time to bring the outbreaks gradually under control and it won’t happen at once.
This refrain came after repeated threats by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman of a “powerful” Israeli reaction if the seven-month campaign of terror by arson and riots on the border continues.
Yet, after two boosted Grad rockets were aimed at two Israeli cities on Wednesday, the Israeli security cabinet decided to hold the IDF back from striking back forcefully and to give Hamas a chance to match this restraint when Friday came around.
What happened was that more than 10,000 rampaging Palestinians showed up on the border fence.
The 33 explosive devices they hurled at the troops was indeed half the number of last week, but could hardly count as restraint.
Although the Israeli border force was reinforced in numbers and equipped with tanks, their tactics did not change from their routine defensive stance.
Chief of staff Lt. General Gady Eisenkot and OC Southern Command Major General Herzi Halevi are at the scene.
During the day, an IDF drone struck a Palestinian incendiary balloon team in southern Gaza.
All the same, three fires were ignited on the Israeli side of the border.
Iron Dome batteries have been deployed at several points in central Israel following the Palestinian Grad attack on two Israeli cities on Wednesday.
Turkey Snatches Kuwait out of the US Orbit, Gains Another Foothold in the Gulf….
20 October 2018
20 October 2018
After signing a military cooperation accord with Qatar, Turkey this weeknegotiated a similar agreement with Kuwait. [pictured above]
The document “for strengthening military cooperation between the two countries” was signed by Kuwait’s Assistant Chief of Staff for Operations and Planning, Brigadier General Mohammed Al-Kandar, and Turkey’s Deputy Chief of Staff, General Emut Yildor.
Kuwaiti officials did not reveal details of the pact, but local sources said itallowed for Turkey to deploy army troops in this emirate too.
President Tayyip Erdogan has therefore acquired permission for bases in a second Gulf emirate, after Qatar.
The deal between Ankara and Doha was instrumental in averting armed conflict between Qatar and its adversaries, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
By opening the door to Turkey, Kuwait’s emir, Sheikh Sabah Al Jaber Al Sabah, has resigned from the role of peacemaker in this inter-Arab controversy, preferring to keep his distance from the Saudi-led military bloc.
He despaired of the Trump administration making any headway towards healing the Gulf rift, after he paid a visit to Washington in the first week of September and met the president.
He also decided he wants no part of the plan devised by the US President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner to create what he calls an Arab NATO.
Turkey, which maintains 35,000 troops with sophisticated equipment at a base in Qatar near the big Al-Udeid Air Base, last year shipped food to this emirate to overcome the shortages generated by the Saudi-led blockade.
Qatar repaid Ankara by supporting the Turkish economy during the collapse of its currency.
Last month, the Qatari emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani travelled to Ankara to present President Erdogan with a $15bn investment plan for boosting the lira as it slumped against the US dollar.
The step Kuwait, too, has taken to distance itself from Qatar’s rivals and Washington was attested to by Parliament Speaker Marzouk al-Ghanem on October 11 at the Eurasian Union’s Inter-parliamentary Conference.
In his speech, he said. “Turkey is not a banana republic; it will recover from the economic war launched against it [by the US] because it is a war doomed to failure.”
Still up in the air are Kuwait’s disputes with Saudi Arabia over the management of the Khafji and Wafra fields, which Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman tried fruitlessly to resolve when he visited the emirate on September 29
The Turkish-Kuwaiti rapprochement is bringing them both close to the group of oil-rich Gulf Muslim nations, including Oman, which maintains close ties with Tehran.
The Kashoggi Affair – Some Perspective; …………….
20 October 2018
20 October 2018
Relations between Donald Trump’s administration and the court of King Salman bin Abdulaziz were turning sour some time before the journalist Jamal Khashoggi [pictured above left] disappeared inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2.
A week earlier, President Trump burst out at a midterm rally: “Our close ally Saudi Arabia and its king would not last two weeks without US military support.” .
After five months of listening without response to disparaging comments from high places in Washington – directed mostly against Crown Prince Muhammad in Salman (MbS) [pictured above right] - Saudi royals were ready to burst.
Still fresh in their minds were the aspersions certain US intelligence circles cast two years ago - at the tail end of the Obama presidency - when Salman ascended the throne, that he suffered from Alzheimer’s and was too confused to understand what was said to him or even where he was.
This was patently false, but it left scars.
Considering that unfortunate history, the initial handling of the Khashoggi episode by Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, national security adviser John Bolton and senior adviser Jared Kushner was clumsy, insensitive and misguided.
On October 13, Trump threatened “severe punishment” if the missing Saudi journalist “proved to have been killed by the kingdom,” although he promised that the huge US arms sale to the kingdom would not be affected. Sanctions were mentioned by US lawmakers.
Riyadh, which by then had had enough, snapped back through an unnamed Saudi official: "The kingdom confirms that if any action is taken against it, it will respond to it by a greater action.”
King Salman refused to take the US president’s calls for nearly two weeks before they talked on October 15.
During that time, sensational, unsubstantiated Turkish allegations were uncritically snapped up by US mainstream media.
By then, Trump had switched to damage control mode.
He told reporters: ”I just spoke with the King of Saudi Arabia, who denied any knowledge of what took place with, as he said, his Saudi Arabian citizen. I’ve asked — and he firmly denied that. I asked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to immediately get on a plane, go to Saudi Arabia, go to other places if necessary, which he probably will, he’ll go to Turkey if necessary.”
The next morning, Pompeo landed in Riyadh and was immediately received by the king and later dined with the crown prince.
Behind these smiling encounters, the Saudi royal house feels badly let down by a second US president after the years 2009-2016 of being cast off as an ally by Barack Obama in favour of its arch-enemy, Shiite Iran.
The Saudis have a hard time deciding which is more dangerous, Obama-style pro-Iranian American Middle East policy or US-intelligence backed Muslim Brotherhood extremists.
They have come to believe that Jamal Khashoggi was not an independent journalist or a freedom-loving pro-reformist, as depicted, but a double agent in the pay of the Brotherhood.
The fear in Riyadh at present is that President Trump will not be able to restore his ties with Riyadh to the friendly alliance prior to the Khashoggi case but forced to keep his distance by the same cloud of suspicion which hangs over his wish to “get along” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Saudi analysts estimate that one of the fixed elements of those ties, the conviction in Washington that Saudi Arabia will never give up on the American military umbrella, has been knocked sideways.
This week, when the Turkish accusers of Riyadh and his own domestic detractors began snapping at the heels of the president and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, over their friendship with the crown prince, a critical decision was reached in the White House:
If MbS could not be positively exonerated, he might have to be abandoned, while every effort would be made to salvage the US alliance with the oil kingdom.
These seemingly trivial sideline events could prove to be very dangerous and the catalyst for serious conflict.
Stay tuned and keep looking up!
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