Reuters is reporting that
Turkey is asking the United States and other western allies to
participate in a massive ground invasion of Syria. But of course the
Turks are not exactly sitting around and waiting for their western
allies to get on board. Turkey shelled northern Syria for a fourth
consecutive day on Tuesday,
even though the Obama administration has been asking them to stop. The
targets were Kurdish and Syrian military positions, and the goal
appears to be to slow down their advance toward the Turkish border. The
Sunni militants that Turkey has been supporting for five years are now
being completely routed, and Turkey is in a great deal of panic about
this.
I
knew that Turkey was trying to round up support for overt military
action, but I was stunned when I came across a mainstream news report
today that publicly admitted that Turkey is asking the Obama
administration to be part of a full-fledged ground invasion of Syria...
Turkey is asking allies including the United States to take part in a joint ground operation in Syria,
as a Moscow-backed government advance nears its borders, raising the
possibility of direct confrontation between the NATO member and Russia.
We don’t have to wonder if Turkey wants an invasion of Syria anymore.
They are now coming out and openly saying it.
Just consider what Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told Reuters...
“Some countries like us, Saudi Arabia and some other Western European countries have said that a ground operation is necessary,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told Reuters in an interview.
However,
this kind of action could not be left to regional powers alone. “To
expect this only from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar is neither right
nor realistic. If such an operation is to take place, it has to be
carried out jointly, like the (coalition) air strikes,” he said.
Obviously
Turkey would like the United States to take the lead role. A
full-blown ground invasion of Syria is a very risky thing, and it could
easily spark World War 3.
So
even though Turkey is chomping at the bit, they are hesitant to go it
alone because they realize what the consequences could be.
The
Saudis also seem hesitant to go ahead without the United States. This
is what Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told reporters during a news conference in Riyadh...
“The
Kingdom’s readiness to provide special forces to any ground operations
in Syria is linked to a decision to have a ground component to this
coalition against Daesh in Syria – this US-led coalition – so the timing
is not up to us,” al-Jubeir told a news conference in Riyadh, adding,
“With regards to timing of the mission or size of troops, this has yet
to be worked out.”
But without a doubt, preparations for war continue.
As I reported the other day,
troops from 20 different nations are gathering in northern Saudi Arabia
for the largest military exercise in the history of the Middle East.
This military exercise has been dubbed “Northern Thunder”, and some
international news sources have reported that it will involve 350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks, 2,450 warplanes and 460 military he.... Other reports put the number of troops closer to 150,000.
But
in any event, that is a very large gathering of military forces, and
many have speculated that this could constitute the main invasion force.
Of course there are two major problems. The path from Saudi Arabia to Syria is blocked by Iraq and Jordan.
In recent days Iraq has deployed troops to its border with Saudi Arabia in order to keep an eye on these “military exercises”...
Iraq
has deployed “large” military forces at the border with Saudi Arabia to
oversee the ongoing military training conducted by the kingdom, member
of the parliamentary security and defense committee Adnan al-Asadi told
the Iraqi news agency INA.
The large-scale military exercises started on Tuesday,
with the participation of ground forces from Egypt, Sudan, Jordan and
several other Arab states, the members of the Riyadh’s antiterrorist
coalition.
So it appears that the path through Iraq is blocked.
But what about Jordan?
After
all, they are participating in “Northern Thunder”, so passing through
Jordanian territory would seem to make the most sense.
A
Jordanian official confirmed that the country will not participate in
any Turkish- or Arab-led Syrian invasion unless mandated by the United
Nations, led by western forces and coordinated with Russia.
“Jordan
is not going to send ground forces into Syria unless these troops are
led by Americans and British,” the Jordanian official said, speaking on
condition of anonymity. “We have very long borders with Iraq and Syria
which are more than 550 kilometers. Any ground troops including
Jordanian forces should be sent after a UN approval and after full
coordination with Russia.”
For
now, it appears that if there is going to be a ground invasion of
Syria, that it is most likely to come from the north. According to Russia Insider,
the Saudis and the Turks have established a join operations center, and
both the Saudis and the UAE have sent military aircraft to Turkey...
According to reports (not
in English, but we will try to dig up a proper translation as soon as
possible), Saudi Arabia has created an operations room with Turkey, in
preparation for a joint assault on Syria. The report also claims that
military planes from the United Arab Emirates are now stationed at
Incirlik airbase in Turkey — the same base where Saudi jets were recently deployed.
The
report, which hasn’t been independently verified, is consistent with
the Saudis’ openess about a possible invasion, as well as Turkey’s
warning that escalation is imminent. And it’s not all talk. Turkey has already begun attacking.
Turkey
has indeed already started attacking. They have been shelling Syria
for four days in a row, and nobody is making them stop.
But a full-blown ground invasion is another thing altogether.
So will Turkey and Saudi Arabia go ahead, or will they chicken out because the U.S. does not want to be involved?
We will just have to wait and see what happens over the next few weeks...
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