Ruth Hammons submits:
What We Should Do (And Threaten Now) If Russia Goes Nuclear
By Dick Morris and John Jordan
September 22, 2022
The usually loquacious talking heads on television have gone strangely silent in the face of Putin's implied threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. One suspects that, in the privacy of their own living rooms, they have no idea what to do.
But the fact is that the United States has a plethora of options to stymie a Russian nuclear move. If we elaborate those options and publicly threaten to use them, this cup may yet pass from our global lips. Our response -- and our threats -- must be economic not primarily military. Russia is incredibly vulnerable to an economic offensive by Europe and America.
We need to hit them where it hurts -- in the energy sector. Half of Russia's government revenues, and a third of its entire economy, come from oil and gas exports. We and our European allies must make clear that we will impose a total embargo on all trade with Russia, including a decision to refrain from buying their oil and gas.
Russia would find it impossible to replace its energy sales to the west. While China and India both need the oil and gas, Russia lacks the necessary pipeline infrastructure to send it to them in sufficient quantity to replace the sales to the US and Europe. In addition to being able to only purchase a fraction of what Russia sold to Europe, China and India would continue to use their leverage as Russia's only customers to obtain steep discounts which further erode Moscow's energy earnings over the long term.
Already, Russia's only three large allies in the world -- China, India and Turkey -- have both moved to distance themselves from Moscow, both calling for peace and negotiation at a time when Russia is talking war. Turkey's two largest banks have just pulled out of MIR, the international banking clearing house Russia and China have set up in opposition to the US-controlled SWIFT system. Russia would be, literally, alone in the world save for some adjacent former Soviet republics.
Russia's economic situation is continuing to deteriorate, and the US and our European friends can do a great deal more to bring the Russian economy to its knees. In the immediate aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine the US and our EU partners removed 7 banks from the SWIFT interbank payment system: effectively cutting them off from the world. Not yet removed from SWIFT are Russia's two largest banks, SBERBANK and GAZPROMBANK. Removing these two banks as well as rest of the Russian banking system from SWIFT will immediately collapse the Russian banking system: triggering runs on banks and a financial crisis in Russia.
The resulting isolation of Russia and Russians will cripple their economies and their very status as a nation-state.
Any initial Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine would likely be an EMP attack, a nuclear weapon detonated in the atmosphere above the target country. While it would not directly kill anyone, it would fry their electric power grid, crippling the victim's communication and transportation networks. The effects and distribution of electronic damage from such an attack are not fully understood as both the US and USSR had limited testing of atmospheric detonations in the early 1960s making the use of these weapons somewhat risky in that NATO countries might be affected as well as parts of Russia.
The alternative -- a direct strike with tactical nuclear weapons (5-10 kilotons) -- would not be feasible if the Russians plan on invading the area after they nuke it. To send troops -- or even tanks -- onto a battlefield after a nuclear strike would require special training and equipment that is likely beyond the immediate capability of today's Russian army.
Biden's tepid remarks at the United Nations -- that amounted to little more than saying "don't" -- are a great example of what not to do. We must be aggressive and explicit in our threats and be prepared to back them up with action.
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