Conservative Patriot: THE PATRIOT POST- ALEXANDER'S COLUMN 04/15/2020

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

THE PATRIOT POST- ALEXANDER'S COLUMN 04/15/2020

Mr. President, Don't Be the Poster Child for CV19 Misery

There are three reasons the president is at high risk of bearing blame for the current economic crisis.

Mark Alexander

"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people." —Bill of Rights (1791)

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It is incredibly important that President Donald Trump be reelected in November. These are extraordinary times. It is for that reason that I hope Republicans can hear this advice from far outside the Beltway.

Unlike ad-driven click-bait mainstream-media "news," we at The Patriot Post don't dramatize our analysis. For the purpose of this column, however, let me note some data that the MSM dramatizes daily. As of this writing, there have been about 625,000 diagnosed cases of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection in the U.S., which have resulted in 28,000 deaths associated with COVID-19 disease — most of which were associated with advanced age, preexisting conditions, or both.

In New York City, the CV19 epicenter, only 1.9% of deaths have been listed as "no underlying conditions." Notably, some researchers estimate that many individuals with preexisting conditions who died after developing CV19 disease would have died by the end of the year even if they had not been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

Because we have no data on how many people have recovered from the virus after having few if any symptoms, I should also note that the CV19 mortality rate in the U.S. is significantly lower than the current 4.1% fatality estimate. Recent studies both here and abroad indicate that our mortality rate could be orders of magnitude lower, given the high percentage of people who already have the CV19 antibodies — those who have recovered. We must start a nationwide random sampling for antibodies to obtain some sense of the number of recoveries.

That being said, all the political posturing and media handwringing right now about who should have done what and when is irrelevant. We do not have the benefit of hindsight, which is (occasionally) 20/20.

We may look back in six months at hundreds of thousands of American deaths, or the number may be under 80,000 — the number of Americans who died in the 2017-18 flu season. But either way, politicians will claim that their extreme measures saved millions and that, therefore, we all owe them an eternal debt of gratitude. Then they will begin spinning who should have done what and when.

Of course, the real test of whether the federal, state, and local actions were right-sized for the cure will be a comparison to Third World CV19 deaths, where social isolation was virtually impossible. Those nations are essentially the control groups for analysis. If the percentage of deaths in those nations is dramatically higher than in the U.S., as expected, then the actions we've taken may be deemed appropriate.

(For the record, I believe the basic CV19 Task Force Guidelines would have been adequate to balance the health risks with the economic impact risks — although those measures alone would have resulted in more deaths.)

But all of the above is academic fodder. Not to be crass, but those who have died from CV19 in the U.S. will (in most cases) not be voting in November.

On the other hand, President Trump's CV19 Task Force recommendations, and particularly the more restrictive measures by state and local governments, have resulted in 16.6 million Americans out of work thus far — more jobs lost in the last 15 days than in the first 15 months of the 2008-09 Great Recession. That unemployment number will surge again this week and in those to come, and the ripple effect will detrimentally impact the financial stability of tens of millions of additional Americans.

Many of those displaced Americans, and tens of millions of others who know them or fear for their future and that of their families, will be voting in November — and despite Trump's best efforts, that is a potentially ominous problem for him and his fellow Republicans in the House and Senate.

Why?

There are three reasons President Trump and every Republican downstream are at risk of bearing blame for the current economic crisis, which they have, out of necessity, shared in creating. The first two reasons are unforced errors, but fortunately there is time to correct course.

1. Trump is setting himself up to be the face of CV19 misery.

President Trump's now-omnipresent lording over the nightly Task Force press briefings — endurance exercises that are anything but brief — is a mistake. He is commander-in-chief and accordingly should only spend a few minutes each night delivering positive and encouraging remarks — and then get off the stage. Leave all the details to Vice President Mike Pence and his Task Force members to provide details about progress and challenges.

The result of these increasingly long and disjointed pressers is that Trump is rapidly becoming the poster child, the lightning rod, for the collective epidemic of economic misery that has spread nationwide. Trump's CV19 Task Force members have done their best to prevent the 2.2 million U.S. deaths projected by the UK research models (now substantially revised) upon which they heavily relied for their initial mitigation recommendations.

But those recommendations combined with the state and local restrictions that followed have come at enormous economic cost to families nationwide. There are legitimate questions about whether the cure was worse than the disease and concerns that these policies are destroying our Republic in order to save it.

President Trump's briefings have placed him at the epicenter of these questions and concerns, and he risks epitomizing the fear, frustration, and misery of millions.

Last week, the Wall Street Journal's reliably conservative editorial board gave voice to similar concerns about the daily pressers: "The briefings began as a good idea to educate the public about the dangers of the virus, how Americans should change their behavior, and what the government is doing to combat it. They showed seriousness of purpose, action to mobilize public and private resources, and a sense of optimism. Mr. Trump benefitted in the polls not because he was the center of attention but because he showed he had put together a team of experts working to overcome a national health crisis. But sometime in the last three weeks Mr. Trump seems to have concluded that the briefings could be a showcase for him."

The WSJ editors conclude: "If Mr. Trump wants to make his briefings more helpful to the country, here's our advice. Make them no more than 45 minutes, except on rare occasions. Let Mr. Pence lead them each day, focusing on one issue or problem. Mr. Pence can take the questions, and Mr. Trump can show up twice a week to reinforce the message."

Trump responded to the WSJ editors: "The Wall Street Journal always 'forgets' to mention that the ratings for the White House Press Briefings are 'through the roof' [and it] is [the] only way for me to escape the Fake News and get my views across. WSJ is Fake News!"

Actually, WSJ is not "fake news," and Trump's response makes plain a perception problem and the implosion to come if he does not correct course. The only rating that matters is the one that will post on Election Night in November, and if he keeps up this nightly reality-TV bit and the economy does not recover soon and swiftly, he'll be out of a job.

Trump hit his all-time approval record high of 47.3% on 31 March, but his ratings have dropped to 44.9%, according to reputable polling averages, and Rasmussen has him at a six-month low of 43%.

As the CV19 death toll mounts, ostensibly the focus of these briefings, the president should have higher priorities than spending two hours "swapping spit with jackasses" in the Leftmedia propaganda machine.

It is critical that Trump extract himself from these briefings if he, and we, will have another shot at Making America Great Again.

2. Where is the "Back to Work Task Force"?

President Trump has appeared to be "asleep at the economic wheel" for not having established a "Back to Work Task Force" four weeks ago. I note "appears" because I have no doubt that Trump and his current task force have been evaluating an exit strategy for weeks.

For the record, let me state again that balancing the CV19 mitigation efforts with the economic and social consequences has been extremely challenging, and formulating and implementing a mitigation plan and an exit strategy is the most difficult and complex policy decision faced by any president in decades. Let me also restate that, to the Trump administration's great credit, our nation was in a better position to take this enormous economic hit than it would've been under the status quo of a President Hillary Clinton. Until a month ago, we had the strongest economy in U.S. history. Trump is also well equipped by his considerable business experience to evaluate an effective path forward.

But appearances matter, and rolling out his economic restoration task force is critical to rebuilding business and consumer confidence.

On 25 March, reinforcing his encouragement and optimism, President Trump stated: "I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go. Our people are full of vim and vigor and energy. They don't want to be locked into a house or an apartment or some space. It's not for our country, and we are not built that way. ... You can destroy a country this way, by closing it down. We lose thousands and thousands of people a year to the flu, but we don't turn the country off. ... [But] our decision will be based on hard facts and data. Rest assured, every decision we make is grounded in the health, safety, and well-being of our American citizens."

On the necessity to reopen the idled sectors of our economy, Trump said: "We're all working very hard to make that a reality. Easter [12 April] is a very special day for a lot of reasons. What a great timeline that would be."

Unfortunately, the president missed an opportunity then (and in all the days since) to announce a "Back to Work Task Force," which would reassure the nation that restoring our vital economy was the administration's second-highest priority, especially after having extended the partial economic shutdown for the entire month of April.

After weeks of waiting on Trump to take the lead on getting America back to work, state governors are now beginning to do what they should do.

Last Friday, Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) previewed his plan to get Texas back to work, saying, "I will outline both safe and healthy strategies where we can begin the process of going about reopening businesses in Texas." Other Republican governors are on that same track, and 10 East and West Coast Democrat governors, with Trump's New York adversary Gov. Andrew Cuomo leading the way, announced they were preparing plans to get their states back to work.

In response, Trump shot federalism in the foot over who will control the nation's economic reopening.

As I noted in late February, one of the brilliant things Trump exercised in issuing federal CV19 guidance was to observe the principles of constitutional federalism — Rule of Law — and leave mitigation and recovery efforts to the states. This is the constitutional framework and the best approach both strategically and politically, because it forces governors to "have skin in the game." Were Trump to make this critical decision entirely on his own, he'd be pilloried by both the Democrat governors and the mainstream media regardless of the outcome.

But the president undermined his federalist approach by responding: "Some in the Fake News Media are saying that it is the governors' decision to open up the states, not that of the President of the United States and the Federal Government. Let it be fully understood that this is incorrect." He then added insult to injury: "When somebody is president of the United States, the authority is total. And that's the way it's gotta be. ... I have the ultimate authority."

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) quickly corrected Trump, saying, "The federal government does not have absolute power."

The president (kind of) walked back his earlier statements, saying: "The Administration and I are working closely with the Governors, and this will continue. A decision by me, in conjunction with the Governors and input from others, will be made shortly. ... I will then be authorizing each individual governor of each individual state to implement a reopening and a very powerful reopening plan of their state at a time and in a manner as most appropriate."

All that now said, on Monday Trump promised to finally announce his "Back to Work Task Force" (or whatever it will be called) on Tuesday.

But at Tuesday's briefing, he did not announce that task force; he just read long lists of corporate and government folks the administration will be consulting in conjunction with bringing the economy back on line.

3. The Pelosi/Schumer Demo tag team is the greatest reelection threat to Trump and congressional Republicans.

Combined with his "misery poster child" and "asleep at the economic wheel" vulnerabilities, President Trump faces the certainty that Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Chuck Schumer will try to hang him with their politically motivated congressional pandemic inquisition.

Last week, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) introduced his partisan so-called "Commission on the COVID-19 Pandemic" bill with Senate cosponsors Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA). According to Schiff, "It's clear we'll need a bipartisan commission to ensure we're better prepared for the next pandemic." Translation: "It's clear we need a partisan commission to ensure we can hang Trump with this pandemic ahead of the 2020 election."

To be sure, nobody is more prepared to politicize this pandemic than Nancy Pelosi, and as I noted in February, that has been the Democrat plan all along. As I also noted previously, if ever there were a justification for the reinstitution of public stockades, if not public gallows, the Pelosi/Schumer traitorous tag team is just that.

In December 2018, I asked a key question in a column titled "Will Democrats Get the Pre-Election Recession They Want?" We now have our answer to that question compliments of the CV19 shutdown, and Pelosi and Schumer can set about to defeat Trump without his booming economic platform centerpiece.

Some suggest that even if Trump pays a heavy political price for the consequences of the CV19 shutdown, Joe Biden still won't defeat him in November. Let me say that I'm not sure, given Biden's notable cognitive decline, that he'll even survive the Democrat convention. Assuming he is the nominee, if Pelosi and Schumer succeed with their strategy to hang Trump from a CV19 misery rope, the Democrats could run just about anyone and defeat Trump.

For the record, given all the comparisons with the 1918 pandemic, Woodrow Wilson's Democrats got hammered at the polls in 1920, as the nation was still reeling from the pandemic. Republican Warren Harding won in a landslide victory, taking every state outside the Democrat Party's southern states (and Tennessee), with a popular-vote margin of 26.2%. Republicans had big pickups in the Senate (+10) and House (+63) to retain control of both, and Republicans picked up seven governorships. That's what we call a "tidal wave" election, and I hope Trump 2020 is taking note.

Finally, responsibility for the current pandemic is squarely the result of Red China's lies and the WHO suppression of those lies.

I hope President Trump will get out of the press briefings and get his Back to Work Task Force up and running to rebuild business and consumer confidence. Moreover, for the sake of all Americans, I hope that never-before seen "V-shaped" recovery will materialize.

(Visit our comprehensive China Virus Pandemic response and recovery page, and see our related pages.

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