From "Basler Zeitung" (Switzerland) https://m.bazonline.ch/
translated with Google
«These researchers have a political agenda»
The oceanographer Nils-Axel Mörner opposes the IPCC and the warnings of sinking islands.
The oceanographer Nils-Axel Mörner opposes the IPCC and the warnings of sinking islands.
Mr Mörner, you have been to the South Pacific several times recently on the Fiji Islands in order to research changes in the coasts and sea levels. Why Fiji?
Nils-Axel Mörner: I knew that in June 2017 there will be a science conference in New York dealing with sea-level changes in Fiji. And it was known that the island nation will chair the 23rd World Climate Conference, which took place last November in Bonn. Fiji moved into the focus of interest. It was heard that the rising sea level had already done a lot of damage there. I wanted to check with my own eyes, if that's true.
What made you skeptical?I've been researching sea-level changes my entire life, traveling to 59 countries. Hardly any other researcher has so much experience in this field. However, the IPCC has always misrepresented the facts on this topic. He exaggerates the risks of a rise in volume enormously. The IPCC relies in particular on questionable computer models rather than field research. But I always want to know what's going on. That's why I went to Fiji.
However, according to ProClim, the Swiss climate research platform, there are series of measurements in Fiji that show a sharp rise in sea level in recent decades. Specifically, the level since 1990 has increased annually by 5.4 millimeters, which is twice as much as the global average.Yes, I know these measurements. These are two series of tide heights, that is water levels at low and high tide. We checked these data - with the result that they are of very poor quality. One row is influenced by the fact that docks were built on loose sediment near the measuring station, which could have changed tidal heights. For the other row, the measuring station was even moved locally. The researchers who rely on such data are office workers. They are not specialized in coastal dynamics processes and sea level changes. Many of them have no idea of the real conditions.
However, according to ProClim, the Swiss climate research platform, there are series of measurements in Fiji that show a sharp rise in sea level in recent decades. Specifically, the level since 1990 has increased annually by 5.4 millimeters, which is twice as much as the global average.Yes, I know these measurements. These are two series of tide heights, that is water levels at low and high tide. We checked these data - with the result that they are of very poor quality. One row is influenced by the fact that docks were built on loose sediment near the measuring station, which could have changed tidal heights. For the other row, the measuring station was even moved locally. The researchers who rely on such data are office workers. They are not specialized in coastal dynamics processes and sea level changes. Many of them have no idea of the real conditions.
How did you go about getting better data?On the one hand, we have followed the examples given, where sea level rise has led to coastal erosion. The result was that erosion was caused by human intervention - such as new coastal structures altering the flow of water or the increased harvest of sea cucumbers that could have destabilized the seabed. To prove sea level changes over the last 500 years, we have dated sand deposits to see when they originated. In addition, we have researched the spread of coral in recent centuries. Typically, coral reefs grow in height as sea level rises, and in width as it remains constant. If the level drops, the corals die off. Corals do not lie, they are a reliable indicator - much more reliable than tidal measurements.
What was the result?We were able to prove that the sea level in Fiji from 1550 to about 1700 was about seventy centimeters higher than it is today. Then it sank and was about fifty centimeters lower in the 18th century than it is today. Then he rose to about the current level. In the last 200 years, the level has not changed significantly. For the past 50 to 70 years he has been absolutely stable.
What was the result?We were able to prove that the sea level in Fiji from 1550 to about 1700 was about seventy centimeters higher than it is today. Then it sank and was about fifty centimeters lower in the 18th century than it is today. Then he rose to about the current level. In the last 200 years, the level has not changed significantly. For the past 50 to 70 years he has been absolutely stable.
Were you surprised?Not really. It was not the first time that the claims of the IPCC turned out to be wrong.
Fiji is only a single archipelago. Maybe the situation is different in other places.There are also data from many other places in the world. These by no means confirm the picture that the IPCC draws. In some places, the sea level actually rises, but in other places it is stable, and elsewhere it even sinks. For example, the mirror is constant in the Indian Ocean and on the Atlantic coast of South America. Also on South Pacific islands such as Tuvalu and Kiribati measurements do not confirm the constant warnings about the sinking of these archipelagos. Surely the sea carries the coasts here and there, but islands grow elsewhere as well. It's been like that forever.
Fiji is only a single archipelago. Maybe the situation is different in other places.There are also data from many other places in the world. These by no means confirm the picture that the IPCC draws. In some places, the sea level actually rises, but in other places it is stable, and elsewhere it even sinks. For example, the mirror is constant in the Indian Ocean and on the Atlantic coast of South America. Also on South Pacific islands such as Tuvalu and Kiribati measurements do not confirm the constant warnings about the sinking of these archipelagos. Surely the sea carries the coasts here and there, but islands grow elsewhere as well. It's been like that forever.
Why are many climate researchers warning about sinking islands?Because they have a political agenda. They are biased by the interpretation that humans cause climate change, and that is a threat. The IPCC was founded with the purpose of representing man-made climate change and of warning against it. His goal was thus fixed from the beginning. And he sticks to it like a dogma - no matter what the facts are. As a specialist in sea level developments, in recent years I have consistently found that the IPCC team does not include a single expert on this issue.
Is there no problem with the rise of the sea level?No.
No danger that islands could sink?The doomsday scenarios usually refer to the year 2100. I estimate that the sea level will then rise on average by five centimeters, with an uncertainty of 15 centimeters. The change goes from plus 20 centimeters to minus 10 centimeters. This is really not a threat. Anyone who claims that there is a threat of an increase of one meter or so, has no idea of physics.
But it flows a lot of meltwater from glaciers and ice shields into the sea.Much less than you think. In the Antarctic, no ice melts in total. When ice melts in the Arctic, it does not change the sea level, because floating ice does not affect the level when melted according to the laws of physics. In essence, only melting ice on Greenland contributes to a level increase. But this post is small.
Seawater heats up and expands, increasing the level of the mirror.That's true, but it's also just a few inches, not by decimeters or even meters. Basically, there are much more important influences that affect the height of the sea level, especially the sunlight. There are also significant horizontal water shifts, from one ocean to another. Like the Fijian data, those of the Maldives also show that levels were significantly higher in the 17th century than they are today. Significantly, this was the time when it was cold in the northern hemisphere, it is called the Little Ice Age. At that time the sun was lower than today. It was the big solar minimum. It seems that deep sunlight is associated with high levels in the tropics - and vice versa. The sea levels seem to depend mainly on the oscillation of solar cycles and hardly on melting ice.
Is there no problem with the rise of the sea level?No.
No danger that islands could sink?The doomsday scenarios usually refer to the year 2100. I estimate that the sea level will then rise on average by five centimeters, with an uncertainty of 15 centimeters. The change goes from plus 20 centimeters to minus 10 centimeters. This is really not a threat. Anyone who claims that there is a threat of an increase of one meter or so, has no idea of physics.
But it flows a lot of meltwater from glaciers and ice shields into the sea.Much less than you think. In the Antarctic, no ice melts in total. When ice melts in the Arctic, it does not change the sea level, because floating ice does not affect the level when melted according to the laws of physics. In essence, only melting ice on Greenland contributes to a level increase. But this post is small.
Seawater heats up and expands, increasing the level of the mirror.That's true, but it's also just a few inches, not by decimeters or even meters. Basically, there are much more important influences that affect the height of the sea level, especially the sunlight. There are also significant horizontal water shifts, from one ocean to another. Like the Fijian data, those of the Maldives also show that levels were significantly higher in the 17th century than they are today. Significantly, this was the time when it was cold in the northern hemisphere, it is called the Little Ice Age. At that time the sun was lower than today. It was the big solar minimum. It seems that deep sunlight is associated with high levels in the tropics - and vice versa. The sea levels seem to depend mainly on the oscillation of solar cycles and hardly on melting ice.
They are among the most distinguished critics of the IPCC. What triggered you to distance yourself from the warnings of man-made climate change?In 1991, I gave a scientific presentation at a conference on sea level changes in the US. The representative of the IPCC present there responded with great anger to my points of view. This reaction surprised me. Because in scientific circles applies that one listens to each other and debates on different points of view. As a result, I noticed more and more that the IPCC spread completely false information and also adheres to obvious mistakes. I then published a paper on the influence of the sun on the sea level, behind which 19 recognized experts. But the IPCC attacked the work with outrageous claims and caused the scientific journal in which it was published to be closed down.
So you want to stop it?You can not stop me. I have published about 650 scientific papers to date. But young colleagues who think critically have no chance given the manipulations. Basically, most science magazine publishers no longer accept work that goes against the claims of the IPCC, regardless of the quality of the work.
But 97 percent of climate researchers are convinced that global warming is man-made?This is nonsense. This number is based on dubious surveys. In fact, the majority of researchers reject the claims made by the IPCC, with between 50 and 80 percent depending on the field. Only meteorologists agree almost 100 percent with the IPCC. But these people are financially dependent on the IPCC.
But does not it make sense in principle to reduce the CO2?Why then? It is obvious that CO2 is not the main driver of temperatures. It is noteworthy that the IPCC itself has repeatedly reduced the announced warming in recent years. But if only 1.5 degrees higher temperatures are to be expected, that is really not important.
So you want to stop it?You can not stop me. I have published about 650 scientific papers to date. But young colleagues who think critically have no chance given the manipulations. Basically, most science magazine publishers no longer accept work that goes against the claims of the IPCC, regardless of the quality of the work.
But 97 percent of climate researchers are convinced that global warming is man-made?This is nonsense. This number is based on dubious surveys. In fact, the majority of researchers reject the claims made by the IPCC, with between 50 and 80 percent depending on the field. Only meteorologists agree almost 100 percent with the IPCC. But these people are financially dependent on the IPCC.
But does not it make sense in principle to reduce the CO2?Why then? It is obvious that CO2 is not the main driver of temperatures. It is noteworthy that the IPCC itself has repeatedly reduced the announced warming in recent years. But if only 1.5 degrees higher temperatures are to be expected, that is really not important.
Why do you hear so many warnings about climate change?Some people have strongly exposed their claims and now obviously can not go back. In addition, public research money flows almost exclusively to the warning about climate change. We are dealing here with a quasi-religious movement that claims to protect the environment. It now puts the fight against global warming before the fight against poverty.
What are the right priorities?It would be important to protect people from natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. In addition, 25,000 people die every day because they have no access to clean drinking water. The food supply is often just as catastrophic. However, Nigeria, for example, is discouraged from using coal, leading to economic development and prosperity that would reduce hunger and poverty. There are today efficient technologies to filter out air pollutants in coal use. Effectively, the fight against climate change harms people very much.
What will happen next?It is expected that solar radiation will decrease over the next few decades, and there will be a slowdown. By then, it will probably become clear how wrong the warnings about global warming are.
What are the right priorities?It would be important to protect people from natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. In addition, 25,000 people die every day because they have no access to clean drinking water. The food supply is often just as catastrophic. However, Nigeria, for example, is discouraged from using coal, leading to economic development and prosperity that would reduce hunger and poverty. There are today efficient technologies to filter out air pollutants in coal use. Effectively, the fight against climate change harms people very much.
What will happen next?It is expected that solar radiation will decrease over the next few decades, and there will be a slowdown. By then, it will probably become clear how wrong the warnings about global warming are.
Nils-Axel Mörner contradicts: Fiji does not go underFrank Bainimarama has twice put himself in power in the island state of Fiji, but for some time, the head of state in the international community is considered acceptable. He fights on the front line against the dangers of global warming for the South Seas islands, especially as chairman of the World Climate Change Conference in Bonn last November. Many Fiji islands are threatened by rising sea levels and storms. The Swedish ocean scientist Nils-Axel Mörner examined the situation on the ground and contradicted the doomsday scenarios in several scientific publications: The warnings were based on unreliable measurements, and the much-claimed coastal erosion was due to human intervention. In an article in the International Journal of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Mörner concluded that sea level levels in Fiji have remained virtually unchanged over the last 200 years, and even absolute in the last 50 to 70 years, based on sediment deposition and coral growth has remained stable.
Nils-Axel Mörner, born in 1938, can look back on a long research career. He was Dean of the Faculty of Paleo-Geophysics and Geodynamics at the University of Stockholm, where he taught as a professor. From 1981 to 1989 he presided over the neotectonics commission of the International Quaternary Research Association (Inqua). From 1997 he led a science project of the EU on geomagnetism and climate for six years. From 1999 to 2003 Mörner was also President of the Inqua Commission for Sea Level Change and Coastal Development. He has published many hundreds of scientific papers.
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