"The Government, The Devil and
the Cone of Uncertainty"
from "In Defense of Rural
America"
By Ron Ewart, President of the
National Association of Rural
Landowners
and nationally recognized author
and speaker on freedom and property rights issues
Copyright
Sunday, July 13, 2014 - All Rights Reserved
As published on
Newswithviews, July 9, 2014
This article is also
available on our website at:
If you were watching the endless reports last
week on hurricane Arthur as it moved up the East Coast of the United States,
perhaps some of you noticed that there was an updated hurricane report every 6
hours. Maybe even some of you noticed that the track of the hurricane
predictions on the weather maps gets wider and wider as it moves forward in
time. In just 4 days the cone of uncertainty is over 500 miles wide, from
a point four days earlier that was only a few miles wide. This is true for
the predictions of all hurricanes and weather systems. It is also true for
a whole bunch of other life experiences and natural events.
Now by the time you read this, the hurricane will
have dissipated into the northern Atlantic Ocean after spilling its guts onto
parts of New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces, that's if their
predictions were right. It will have passed into ancient hurricane history
and the weathermen (or women) will move onto the next weather front,
tornado, tropical storm, or a new hurricane spawning off the north coast of
Africa, or in the Caribbean Ocean somewhere. Because you see ladies and
gentlemen, the weather is a non-linear dynamic system and is infinitely
variable. The fact is, climate changes, sometimes drastically. And
that is the reason why it defies long-range predictions. There are just
too many variables. But the government and the scientists won't tell you
that.
So why is it, if we have to update the predictions
of the path of a hurricane every 6 hours using computer models, how can those
same computer models possibly predict the weather 1 week, one month, one year,
one decade, or one century into the future? The fact is they can't, even
if the scientists have the best computers in the world. There are too many
variables in the system that defy modeling, such as volcano eruptions, cloud
cover, massive forest fires, changing ocean currents and changes in the Sun's
output of solar energy.
As an example, it was just recently reported that
Antarctica sea ice is many times larger and on the increase, where climate
computer models show the ice should be decreasing.
Which begs the question, why do we believe the
government and the climate scientists when they tell us that the temperature and
the oceans are going to rise, cities will be flooded, agriculture will dry up
and people will either drown, starve, or die by the millions? Why?
Because people are uneducated about the basics of science and logic and they
believe what anyone in authority tells them. By being thus, government's
power grows and the people assure their own enslavement.
Life on Earth offers many, what are
called non-linear dynamic systems. Eco-systems, oceans, the weather, the
stock market, commerce and trade, currency exchange, welfare and the poor
and the behavior of people, are just a few examples. They are characterized by
having many different variables that determine their instantaneous conditions.
The instantaneous condition can be altered dramatically with small changes in
one or more variables, (tweaking) thus invoking the ravages of the
butterfly effect. [from Wikipedia] "The phrase refers
to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere
that ultimately cause a tornado to appear. The flapping wing represents a small
change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events
leading to large-scale phenomena. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the
trajectory of the system might have been vastly different. Small variations of
the initial condition of a non-linear dynamical system may produce large
variations in the long term behavior of the system."
In 2005 we wrote an article about man-caused
global warming that was published in the Seattle Times in December of that year
as a guest editorial. It lays out a short summary of the changing earth
over a long period of time (eons) and why predictions of twenty years, or even
100 years, are just plain scientific folly, if not a purposeful fraud. In
the case of man-caused global warming, the fraud has been exposed but the
government, environmentalists and climate scientists keep on pushing it for
political reasons and a socialist, wealth re-distribution, United Nations
agenda.
In any event, we have repeated some of the
December 2005 article below entitled, "Global Warming, A
Farce".
"To see anything clearly, you must
have a sufficiently broad perspective, accompanied by hard data, repeatable
long-term observations and verifiable facts. If you are standing and
looking at the ground, your perspective and your field of view are quite
limited. If, however, you are standing on the top of a mountain, your
perspective broadens exponentially. And thus it is with the subject of
global warming. Without a broader view, it is almost impossible to know whom or
what to believe. So, a short history of the Earth is in
order."
"The Earth has endured sunspots,
reversing poles, shifting magnetic fields, drifting continents, asteroid and
comet collisions, and ice ages in its 4.5 billion-year history. It has
experienced the wondrous 165 million-year dinosaur experiment. Six hundred
million years ago, the "Cambrian explosion" occurred, when life almost magically
erupted, emerged and evolved at a pace never before
seen."
"Over its lifetime, the Earth spun,
tilted, heaved, shifted, rose and shrunk, drastically changed, expelled gases
and molten lava, grew hot and then cold. Continents drifted first toward each
other (Pangea) and then away. Polar ice caps and glaciers melted and sea
levels rose and then lowered."
"About 12,000 years ago, one-third of
the Earth's surface was covered in a layer of ice more than one mile
thick. During that ice age, which lasted longer than civilized man has
lived on Earth, there were no animals, plants, insects or habitat that could
survive in this harsh environment. But life on Earth still survived in
other places less hostile. The ultimate thaw and the rushing torrent
carved deep gouges and massive channels in the Earth's surface. It created
riverbeds and dry falls and lakes and inland seas and other features in the
Earth's crust, not there before. Now that was global warming on a grand
scale."
"Whole forests grew and then died out.
Mountains rose out of the bowels of the Earth, pushed up by continents in
collision and then flattened back into the crust. Ancient sea-beds rose up and
became the land. Rivers changed direction. Monster lakes were
formed. Giant meteors struck the Earth at unimaginable speeds, carving
massive holes in the crust and sending continent-size clouds of sunlight-dimming
dust into the atmosphere. The atmosphere became opaque and cut off the
life-giving sunlight, rendering lifeless enormous parts of the
planet. Millions of species of plants and animals evolved, survived,
reproduced and then died out, to be replaced by entirely different species of
plants and animals."
"However, major changes seldom
occurred in cataclysmic events. They almost always took place agonizingly
slowly, over eons of time, through the tedious, grinding, random, chaotic,
disorganized process of natural evolution. The variables were almost
infinite and still are."
"And today, those same agonizingly
slow processes are at work. We are an integral part of those processes but
we will have little or no effect on any final outcome. We will but only
tickle the grander elements such as the Sun, the Moon and the Earth itself, none
of which is predictable, much less measurable to the degree necessary for
accurate predictions."
"A few spewing volcanoes or an episode
of sunspots can totally invalidate any computer models. Just look at
weather predictions. Any prediction is good for about two hours and that
is why the environmentalists' models were predicting an ice age 20 years ago and
now they are predicting global warming. It's an insult to our intelligence
and to true science."
"The universe, our solar system and
even our Earth are violent, dangerous places to humans and other life forms and
always have been. Just ask the dinosaurs. So far, we have just been
lucky. A close-by (in galactic terms) supernova
in the spiral arm of the Milky Way, in which our solar system resides, could
flood the sun and planets with massive amounts of deadly radiation and render
Earth lifeless and barren. If the Sun changed its energy output by a
significant fraction, all life on Earth could cease. An errant asteroid or
comet could cross the Earth's orbit and the resulting collision could
dramatically change the pattern of life, or terminate it
altogether."
"Environmentalists and climate
scientists cry "wolf" on very little data and way-too-short time periods to come
up with meaningful predictions, as they have with man-caused global
warming. Unfortunately, environmentalism has become a cult of mindless
followers with a distorted vision of how humans and the Earth should relate to
each other. Earth gets the highest priorities — over people — in spite of true
science. In reality, humans are but a part of the evolutionary and natural
processes of Earth and those processes, not environmentalists or governments,
will determine the final outcome. This is why the environmentalist's
man-caused global warming theory is an unmitigated
farce."
Knowing all this, how can we
believe the government and climate scientists when they tell us that the
"climate" sky is falling? To spend trillions of American taxpayer dollars
on attempts to limit carbon dioxide in the atmosphere when other countries are
doing nothing, would be one of the greatest frauds ever perpetrated on the
American people by their government in America's history. But don't take
our word for it. That is exactly what Apollo Astronaut Walter Cunningham said in
his recent article entitled: "Climate Alarmism - Biggest Fraud
In The Field of Science."
The hard facts of reality are, we live in a world full of
uncertainties, and weather, man-caused or otherwise, is one of those huge
uncertainties. No matter how good our science is, we simply cannot
accurately predict weather over long periods of time. Nor can the
scientists or the government predict to any degree of accuracy, stock market
movements, the economy, the flow of money, people's behavior, ocean currents, or
any other non-linear dynamic system. They aren't just sort of wrong, they
are wrong by several orders of magnitude. Ask a hundred economists on what
is going to happen to the economy in the next 10 or twenty years and you will
get a hundred different answers, all backed up with unimpeachable statistics and
mathematics. Most of them will be wrong.
Government can't control these things, the devil or evil men
seem to be in control and the cone of uncertainty gets wider and wider as each
day passes. If it were otherwise, the City of Las Vegas would be a ghost
town.
There are so many more government actions that negligently mess
with non-linear dynamic systems that have unintended if not drastic
consequences. We do not have space to name them all. Just about
everything that government touches gets screwed up one way or another by
politics because of their purposeful ignorance of non-linear dynamic systems and
the butterfly effect. Suffice it to say, government is leading us down the path
to Hell and the pace is accelerating. The sad thing is, WE THE PEOPLE are
letting them do it and by so doing we are letting the devil win. One thing
is not uncertain though. Liberty hangs in the balance, depending on what
the people do to or with their government.
With education, information and a little inspiration, we are
trying to inform as many people about the issues as we can, that are interested
enough to listen, rural or urban. Our two websites HERE and HERE offer a wealth of
more information on what to look out for and how to fight government corruption,
abuse and arrogance ….. without a lawyer.
Ron Ewart, a nationally known author and
speaker on freedom and property rights issues and author of this weekly column,
"In Defense of Rural America", is the president of the National
Association of Rural Landowners (NARLO) (http://www.narlo.org), a non-profit corporation headquartered in Washingotn State, an
advocate and consultant for urban and rural landowners. He can be reached
for comment at info@narlo.org.
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