What the West Needs to Do Now to Contain
Russia
Relative to Russia the West finds
itself in a position of weakness with no good alternatives. In the case
of the Crimea, Russia demonstrated how quickly a dictatorship can act when it
takes matters into its own hands. In the space of about three weeks
Russia took over almost all the Ukrainian military bases in the Crimea,
sponsored a (bogus) referendum on independence, and passed legislation in the
Russian parliament annexing the Crimea to the Russian Federation.
Although Russia long maintained that this action was in response to a
spontaneous uprising of disadvantaged Russian-speaking Ukrainians, President
Putin recently admitted that units of the Russian army were present in the
Crimea during the uprising.
Now the West finds itself staring at
30,000 or 40,000 Russian troops in a high state of readiness concentrated
along the Russian border with the Ukraine. Although Putin promised
German Chancellor Merkel to withdraw some of these troops as a sign of
de-escalation, none of these troops has been withdrawn.
The West has threatened Russia with
the imposition of additional sanctions, which could start to inflict economic
pain sometime in the future but for the moment seem almost laughable.
Some of the oligarchs whose travel has been restricted or whose bank accounts
have been frozen have seen their names on the sanctions list as a badge of
patriotism which improved their personal status in Russia.
Russia’s goals in the Ukraine are
becoming clearer by the day. In Moscow old maps are circulating showing
the territory called “New Russia”, which was conquered by Catherine the Great
in the late 18th century. Some of the language surrounding
this discussion reminds us of the word Lebensraum (living space) as
used by the Nazis to justify their expansion to the East, except in this case
the expansion is toward the West. The area covered by the “New Russia”
represents about half of the present territory of the Ukraine and includes
virtually all of eastern and southern Ukraine and even part of Moldova.
It is very likely that Russia will use the script from its successful Crimean
operation to destabilize eastern and southern Ukraine by covertly sending in
disciplined, highly trained Special Forces troops (wearing uniforms without
national insignia) and taking over strategic points such as military bases,
police headquarters and Ukrainian government buildings. (This has
already happened in more than a dozen cities near the Russian border.)
To bring order out of the chaos they themselves have deliberately created, the
Russians would take over the south and eastern Ukraine and then supervise a
referendum asking the people whether they want federalism and greater autonomy
from Kiev but still remain within the present borders of the Ukraine. If
all Ukrainians were asked this question in a national referendum, the majority
(including the Russian-speakers) would almost certainly vote to remain in the
Ukraine. However, if the referendum were supervised by the Russians and
held only in the areas with a Russian-speaking majority (the East and the
South), the referendum would pave the way for these areas to be split off from
the Ukraine..
NATO vs. EU
In the present climate NATO seems
able to speak with a voice somewhat stronger than that of the European
Union. NATO has been willing to send some additional planes and ships to
areas near the borders of NATO member countries in the East, it may send
troops to Poland and it is increasing its overall readiness. However,
instead of keeping its intentions secret from its adversary, NATO has violated
a time-honored principle of warfare by announcing publicly and in advance that
it will not defend the Ukraine if it is attacked by Russia, since the Ukraine
is not a member of NATO. The EU can only agree to impose mild economic
sanctions unless Russia continues to delay implementing or to ignore the
diplomatic agreement signed 17 April 2014 in Geneva. Perhaps because of
the enormous sums German firms have invested in Russia, these companies are
putting pressure on the German government not to impose any sanctions.
As a result, Germany has been the EU member which is the most reluctant to
impose economic sanctions. Although the EU, NATO and the UN all roundly
condemned Russia for its bogus referendum and illegal annexation of the
Crimea, the West has basically already accepted the takeover as a fait
accompli and is no longer even trying to use it as a bargaining chip in
return for concessions from Russia.
What we need to do
now
The inability of the Ukrainian
government in Kiev to regain control of the occupied police, secret police and
government buildings in the East demonstrates the extent to which its
authority has been undermined. This is a situation which practically
invites Russia to intervene. What would Europe look like if Russia
invades?
- There would be an outcry by NATO member countries, particularly Poland and the Baltic States, based on flashbacks to the most horrible periods in their history.
- NATO would come under pressure to mobilize and reposition forces so as to offer more protection to NATO members.
- The EU and NATO would again be caught off guard and would not be able to react quickly enough. The Cold War would have returned in full force. Again the cry would be to drastically increase military spending in the NATO countries in order to contain a re-emerging Soviet Union.
- The Maidan (Independence Square) activists who successfully ousted President Yanukovitch would be in grave danger. There are already rumors that Russia is collecting the names of the Maidan leaders with a view to eliminating them if and when a pro-Russia government takes over in the Ukraine. This would mean that the most Western-oriented Ukrainians, who risked their lives to peacefully demonstrate for freedom of speech and assembly, would be jailed or killed and thereby eliminated as future allies of the West. Can the West let this happen?
Instead of sitting with our hands
folded waiting for Russia to strike, I propose that we act pro-actively to
keep this from happening. Russia has a great advantage over NATO in
repositioning troops and equipment because of its proximity (the Ukraine is in
Russia’s backyard), whereas NATO would have to move forces relatively long
distances from Britain, France and other countries. After years of
cutbacks, the U.S. has hardly any combat forces stationed in Europe
(especially in Germany), so most of its troops would have to be flown in from
the U.S.
I propose that we explore the
possibility of re-opening some recently closed bases in Germany (and other
NATO countries) and begin the mobilization and transfer of units from the
Continental U.S. Compared to the cost of gearing up the whole defense
establishment to fight the Cold War again, the cost of the movement of these
forces would be relatively small. For the Russians, having additional
American and other NATO troops stationed as close as Germany, and perhaps even
on their border with Poland, would have a significant deterrent effect.
The disadvantage is that reactivating bases would take time, and the approval
of the host countries, especially after the NSA spying scandal, is far from
certain. However, if the West makes a strong statement that the Ukraine
is within its defense perimeter and that it will come to the aid of the
Ukraine if it is attacked, it is possible that Russia might postpone its next
attempt to expand its territory. This would give NATO time to move
troops and equipment and strengthen its capabilities in Eastern
Europe.
Recently almost all attention in
Eastern Europe has been focused on the Ukraine, but I believe the situation in
Moldova is equally dangerous. Transnistria, a narrow strip of land which
runs along the eastern bank of the Dnister River in Moldova, has a large and
vocal Russian-speaking element which could easily be manipulated to justify an
invasion to “protect” the Russian-speakers. On 18 March 2014
Transnistria filed an official application to become part of the Russian
Federation. On 17 April 2014 the High Council of Transnistria sent an
official request to President Putin to recognize the independence of
Transnistria and to approve its annexation by Russia. According to two
members of the Transnistrian parliament, the steps to be taken for the
annexation of Transnistria have already been discussed with Russia and would
use the takeover of the Crimea as a model. Since Transnistria is not far
from the Black Sea, I propose that the U.S. Navy station warships and hold
exercises near the mouth of the Dnister River in order to dissuade Russia from
fomenting riots in Transnistria or trying to take over Odessa, the Ukraine’s
most important remaining port. If Transnistria were annexed and Russia
increased its troop presence there, Russia could exert irresistible pressure
on Moldova which would, in turn, make it a threat to neighboring Romania, a
NATO member country closely related ethnically to Moldova. Another proposed
step would be to stage a mobilization exercise to reactivate the Selective
Service in the U.S. to see if it still functions after such a long period in
mothballs. Any sort of mobilization would show Russia that NATO and the
EU are serious about preventing it from taking over any more
territory.
There is a great deal of similarity
between the present situation and that leading up to the outbreak of World War
II. Instead of standing up to Hitler in 1938 and refusing to let him
annex the Sudetenland, by their inaction and cowardice the allies gave Hitler
additional time to expand and mobilize his army, and their lack of resistance
actually encouraged him to take over even more territory. Like the
allies in 1938 we still have an opportunity to stop this dictator before he
becomes too strong and before it takes a great war with millions of deaths to
stop him later.
Harold Leaman
Response to a correspondent on Ukraine.
For what it's worth?
That is a good place to start. What IS a commentary written in the West on
Russia and Ukraine worth these days?
Note how the author points out how the Russians didn't do enough to stop
the pro-Russians in the East. Yet, did WE do enough to quell the riots and blood
shed in Kiev? Did we tell the Urkainians "Ukraine has a democratically elected
government. Stop shooting police"?
No, we supported the murders in the street.
Now we are demanding that Russia put an end to disturbances in Western
Ukraine to protest the non democratic, unelected regime in Kiev and
we are incensed. In Kiev, the West encouraged them to riot.
In the East, Russia has not encouraged anyone to riot. They are
taking a hands off approach.
Yet they are the villain in this tagedy?
Let's look at what this author says:
"..President Putin recently admitted that units of the Russian army were present in the Crimea during the uprising."
That was not a confession. The author omits to mention that these troops
had been stationed there for years under an agreement with Ukraine.
The author also says Putin did not keep a promise to withdraw some
troops.
If you read foreign minister Lavrov's TV interview of a few days ago, which
I took the pains to translate, you will see that the story of post-Soviet Russia
is the story of promises broken, not by Russia but by the West:
The fact is, our foreign policy has failed and is about to cause a
disaster, not because we failed to contain Russia but because we pretended they
are the enemy and China is an inocuous friend of America.
Yet, China, our 'friend,' has declared a no-go zone in a swath of the
Pacific that used to be a go-zone for American ships and planes and have claimed
Japanese Senkaku Islands as well as a piece of the Philippines.
Have you read that JOhn Kerry is threatening China with sanctions?
Oh, that's right. He is busy trying to convince foreign minister Lavrov
that the Russians are the bad guys and a threat to world peace.
Our government is using the Urkaine crisis, a crisis of its own creation
(Soros NGOs were working for years to undermine the government), to hide its
failure in diplomacy with China.
We thought we could buy Chinese loyalty with Most Favored Nation status,
just as we thought we could buy the loyalty of the Taliban in Afghanistan by
arming them to defeat Russia.
China did not vote with the US in the UN on the sanctions against
Russia.
We failed to drive a wedge in Sino-Russian relations.
It turns out that, like the Taliban, they were not for sale.
Don
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