BLOWING SMOKE…BUT THERE’S STILL HOPE
“After 4 days of early vote in Nevada,” maintains the Republican National Committee’s communications shop at GOP.com, “Republicans have made significant gains over 2008 performance, cutting into the Democrat’s traditional early vote advantage.”
That’s pure spin. As Jon Ralston put it in a series of tweets Wednesday afternoon:
“GOP message on early/mail balloting in NV: We are destroying the Democrats by losing by much less than we did in '08. … I honestly don't understand GOP spin here: Obama won NV by 12 in '08. It was a landslide in a wave election; McCain abandoned NV…. Of course, GOP is doing much better in '12. It's like a football team that went 0-16 starting off 2-6. We suck, but we don't suck as bad!”
The raw fact is this: Almost 20,000 more Democrats had voted statewide than Republicans after 4 days of early voting. It’s ominous. But it’s not hopeless. Consider this VERY basic scenario…
According to the Secretary of State’s statewide numbers of ballots cast in early/absentee balloting combined, 99,415 Democrats had voted; 79,697 Republicans had voted and 35,497 “others” had voted.
Now let’s assume 90 percent of the Democrats are voting for Obama, 8% for Romney and 2% for “other” (a third party candidate or none-of-the-above).
And let’s say 90 percent of Republicans are voting for Romney, 6% for Obama and 4% for “other.”
And let’s further assume that 55% of the “other” voters are voting for Romney, 40% are voting for Obama and 5% for “other.”
These are not unreasonable assumptions. So let’s do the math.
That would mean Obama has 104,144 votes and Romney has 99,203 votes.
That’s close. Especially considering Republicans traditionally do better on Election Day itself than Democrats - *if* there are any voters left who haven’t voted by Election Day this year!
Of course, the number assumptions outlined above could also be off. Maybe only 88% of Democrats are voting for Obama. Maybe Romney’s getting 60% of the “other” vote. Maybe the early surge of early votes for the D’s will taper off and the R’s will catch up. There are all kinds of possibilities and unknowns at this point.
But the bottom line is this: Republicans aren’t in an ideal position. On the other hand, it ain’t over ‘til it’s over and the fat lady isn’t even clearing her throat yet.
MITT CALLED ME!
I came home today and could just kick myself for going to work. If I hadn’t, I wouldn’t have missed Mitt Romney’s call! Here’s the message he left on my voice-mail after he realized I wasn’t home:
“Hello, this is Mitt Romney calling. I just wanted to give you a call to see if we could speak directly so I can ask for your support and maybe answer any questions you might have. Sorry it doesn’t appear that we can make that happen right now, but perhaps we’ll run into each other at some point in the campaign.”
The GOP presidential candidate also left a phone number for me to call…and since he said he wanted to speak to me “directly,” I called him back immediately. Who wouldn’t, right?
Alas, all I got was a recorded message from something called “Team Nevada” telling me about absentee ballots and early voting locations and crud. Who cares about that? I’M RETURNING MITT’S CALL! He said he wanted to speak with me DIRECTLY! Why isn’t a live human answering the phone who can put me through to him immediately? Immediately, I say!
Was that sufficiently sarcastic?
I’m sorry, but this message…mixed in with 5,238 other voicemails from the Republican National Committee…really ticked me off. Primarily for its deceptive nature, but also because it assumes the person listening to the message is a complete idiot.
Come on. Mitt didn’t call (you know that, right?). He recorded a message that was left on everyone’s answering machine. If an answering machine didn’t answer, the call was automatically disconnected. So why lie and pretend that if I’d answered the phone Mitt Romney would have actually been on the other end to personally ask for my vote?
I wonder which highly-paid political consultant came up with this dumb-ass idea to insult the intelligence of Nevada voters?
MOUNT REAGAN PROJECT UPDATE
Please sign our online petition supporting the establishment of an official “Mount Reagan” in Nevada. Click here
DRIVE-BY MUTHINGS
* Follow-up: The Governor’s Office of Economic Development unanimously recommended last week over $1.2 million dollars worth of tax breaks and other incentives be extended to two out-of-state companies in an effort to legally bribe them to move their operations to Nevada. In the meantime, none of Nevada’s existing companies got doodley-squat for, you know, already being here. It just ain’t right.
* Ex-state Sen. Elizabeth Halseth is back on the pages of Maxim magazine, complete with saucy new photos to accompany a short, content-free interview. Catch it here, you sexist pigs!
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“.@MittRomney clearly has the momentum here in Nevada. Governor Romney will carry Nevada and be next President. He has my full support.” – Tweet today from Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval, continuing to do the absolute least he can possibly do
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