Trump Keeps Iran Nuclear Program, Waives Sanctions – for the Last Time…...
January 12, 2018
US President Donald Trump Friday extended the waivers on Iran nuclear sanctions and kept alive the 2015 deal, but stressed this was for the last time – unless US and
Europe can reach agreement on Iranian enrichment and ballistic missile development.
The US gave Europe 120 days to agree to overhaul the deal before the next deadline in May, or else the US would pull out.
The US also imposed sanctions on 14 Iranian non-nuclear entities, including the powerful head of the judiciary, Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani, for human rights abuses against anti-government protesters.
Among the other entities blacklisted for sanctions are the Revolutionary Guards Corps cyber unit for repressing social media networks to suppress protest.
The Trump administration also wants the “follow-on” deal to eliminate the “sunset clauses” of the current nuclear agreement, under which Iran is allowed to resume enrichment when the deal expires, and expanded inspections that could trigger re-imposed sanctions if Iran failed to comply.
Meanwhile, European Union ministers presented a united stance Thursdayin Brussels in support of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, with German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel [pictured above] warning that dismantling it could embolden North Korea’s nuclear aspiration.
Gabriel met with his French, British and Iranian counterparts as the United States decision loomed on whether to back out of the landmark pact, which placed limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the relaxing of punishing sanctions.
Asked if there is a threat to the deal due to US President Donald Trump’s opposition, Gabriel replied: “We are convinced that the JCPOA has to be preserved. It is in Europe’s interest. It is in the interest of the international community,” referring to the deal by its technical acronym.
“If the only agreement of this kind is smashed it would send a very dangerous signal to others. We see a dramatic development in North Korea, which is striving for nuclear weapons. This is why we Europeans think it is imperative to preserve the agreement,” Gabriel said, adding that the deal had “fenced in an acute crisis” and was now “a central part of our security” for Europeans.
Inside the White House…..
By Bill Koenig
White House Correspondent
13 January 2018
I attended an excellent and informative event at the Heritage Foundationon Thursday. The following is a link to the video and below are highlights from the presentations.
President Trump’s “Ultimate Deal”: Is Israeli-Palestinian Peace Possible?
The Trump Administration is developing an “outside-in” strategy, enlisting Arab governments to take positive steps toward Israel.
Will this do the trick and break decades of Palestinian-Israeli impasse? Or are there alternate approaches with a better chance to end the conflict?
Presenters: Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Fl., Chairman, National Security Subcommittee, and Member, House Foreign Affairs Committee Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Daniel Pipes, Ph.D., President, Middle East Forum, Congressman DeSantis.
Israel is not the source of lasting peace for the Middle East. The Middle East is in chaos throughout the region. Iran is flush with money and fomenting problems in the region.
ISIS grew rapidly after the U.S. left Iraq. An interest in aligning U.S. with Sunni Arab interests.
Iran will get a nuclear weapon now or in a decade, when the agreement is completed.
The Obama approach was to empower Iran, thinking that empowering Iran would be better for the U.S. and Iran.
Congressman DeSantis [pictured above] identified sites of a potential Jerusalem Embassy in a March 2017 trip to Israel; he is still engaged and believes they will have some very positive news on one of the sites very soon.
Middle East leaders like strong and swift leadership, whether they agree with you or not; it carries a lot of influence. Trump is that kind of leader.
All the bureaucrats in Washington and other places said moving the embassy to Jerusalem would create problems.
It was a great act of statesmanship for Trump to acknowledge Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and commit to moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.
They should have a temporary U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem later this year.
The State Department almost unanimously, or close to 90 percent of the people who worked in the region, opposed Trump’s Jerusalem decision.
I think they should have some introspection on the lack of fallout that occurred over the Jerusalem issue, since they had predicted otherwise.
The fact of the matter is that all the predictions from the State Department and other agencies concerning Trump’s Jerusalem decision didn’t come true, and there has been a lack of fallout in the region despite their prediction.
Iran Protests
The U.S. has let the protesters know that we stand behind them. This is music to the ears of Sunni Arab allies, too. They will align with the U.S. and Israel against the Iranian threat.
What is going on in Iran is potentially historic.
An illegitimate regime in Iran has denied the people their basic rights that have suffocated the Persian culture for decades. Iran spends money overseas and supports terrorism.
Standing behind protesters is critical against one of the most evil groups in the world.
Defeat of Iran would have enormous dividends with far-reaching benefits regionally and throughout the world.
President Trump has found his sea legs in his first year, and he expects much more in 2018 in this region.
Middle East Peace Window closing
The Palestinians refuse to acknowledge that they have been defeated or to deal in reality and have had terrible leadership.
Would a PA state be viable? Doubtful. Palestinians are not an entity; they have no port, no airport, no resources. no economy and no military. They rely on Israel or Jordan.
Jordan has been overrun by 1 million Syrians and 250,000 Iraqis, who are now permanent citizens.
Ronald Reagan's policy did not support an Arab Palestinian State; it was George W. Bush who introduced that.
Israel hasn’t sought a victory with the Palestinians, and the war continues.
Palestinian rejection of Israel’s right to a Jewish State is the core of the problem.
They hold to the delusion that they can defeat Israel, and yet the U.S. government should encourage Israel to declare victory.
The Palestinian plan is not working, it is consumed by oppression. Once the Palestinians agree they have been defeated, they can build their own state.
It is time for a new paradigm. The old process has failed.
Arab Palestinians are 80 percent rejectionist, with 20 percent supporting Israel. Israel and U.S. should appeal to the Palestinian people, eliminating the belief they can defeat Israel.
Younger Arab Palestinians are more interested in their future, family, work and future, not militancy and the PA leadership has a declining legitimacy.
No elections have been held in many years because of a fear that Fatah would lose and Hamas would be strengthened, and the Arab Palestinian people are not prepared for compromise and there are major succession issues due to Abbas’ age.
On Jerusalem and the Peace Process
The Arab Palestinians are trying to figure how to deal with a changed Washington under Trump, and through Abbas, have called for an international effort on Jerusalem.
The 22 Arab states have remained quiet on the Jerusalem issue; the PA is making the noise.
No other nation can convene the peace process: French, British, Russians can’t do peace; the United States has to be involved.
The Middle East
The hotbeds of hostility are Turkey and Iran. With Turkey and Sinai near civil war, over half of Syria or 11 million people are displaced.
Putin has reinserted Russian influence, and Obama helped that via Syria inactivity.
Two major vulnerabilities of Russia’s actions; they have become tighter with Iran, and their declining nation and influence could create issues.
China will be the biggest problem in future, by far.
Norway, EU Call Meeting in Bid to ‘Speed Up’Efforts for 2-State Solution…..
13 January 2018
Norway and the European Union said Wednesday they would convene an “extraordinary session” of donor countries to the Arab Palestinians, saying efforts to reach a peace deal needed to be hurried up.
The meeting of the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee, to be held on January 31in Brussels, is also meant to discuss the need to “enable the Palestinian Authority to execute full control over Gaza” based on the Fatah-Hamas reconciliation deal signed in Cairo on October 12, 2017.
“There is an urgent need to bring all parties together to discuss measures to speed up efforts that can underpin a negotiated two-state solution,” the EU said in a statement.
Chaired by Norway and co-sponsored by the US and the European Union, the AHLC is the main coordination mechanism for development assistance to the Palestinian Authority.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has refused to meet with US mediators since US President Donald Trump recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
Top Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat [pictured above] on Tuesday said the Palestinians would reject all US-sponsored peace talks until Washington rescinded its December 6 recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
“The continued American talk about deals to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or calling for negotiations or talks is unacceptable to the Palestinian leadership, as long as Trump’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is not revoked,” Erekat told the official Voice of Palestine radio station, according to the official PA news site Wafa.
The Egyptian-brokered Palestinian reconciliation agreement set aDecember 1 deadline for the terror group to fully transfer power in the Gaza Strip back to the Palestinian Authority, which is dominated by PA Abbas’s Fatah party, though that was repeatedly pushed back as deadlines passed.
Hamas has demanded Abbas lift all sanctions he placed on the Strip as part of reconciliation measures.
Palestinian Capital in Abu Dis or Ramallah?
13 January 2018
Mahmoud Abbas entirely rejects the option of Abu Dis or Ramallahserving as the Arab Palestinian capital in an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, even though this possibility was discussed extensively in the past, and the Palestinian Authority began construction on the Palestinian parliamentary building in Abu Dis.
The PA has done much to weaken its status in east Jerusalem, and when Abbas is replaced as PA chairman the names, Abu Dis and Ramallah, may again become relevant to an Israeli-Palestinian settlement.
The Palestinians’ Race To The Bottom…..
By Caroline Glick
08 January 2018
The problem for the PLO/PA is that the world has changed fundamentally while they were busy embracing terrorists and getting away with it.
The PLO and the Palestinian cause more generally are sinking into irrelevance and rather than reform their policies to rebuild their position, they have adopted a scorched earth policy that only intensifies their race to the bottom.
On the face of things, the situation isn’t bad. Last month the PLO got 128 nations to vote in favour of their anti-American resolution rejecting US President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
Read the full article HERE
5 Places World War III Could Start in 2018…..
Source: National Interest
13 January 2018
The world managed to make it through most of 2017 without the return of cataclysmic, great power conflict. Just.
In some parts of the world (most notably Syria) tensions have declined significantly.
In others, already difficult situations have grown even more tense. Here are five crises that could lead to great power conflict over the course of 2018.
North Korea
North Korea is undoubtedly the most serious foreign-policy crisis facing the world today. This situation could easily lead to miscalculation by either side, and the potential for a war that could draw in Japan and China.
Taiwan
Recent aggressive statements by Chinese military and diplomatic leaders suggest that at least some in the PRC believe that the military balance has shifted in their favour.
Ukraine
The situation in Ukraine remains tense. The tenuous cease-fire in Eastern Ukraine is increasingly punctuated by violence between Kiev and Moscow-supported local militias.
NATO’s Southern Flank
Relations between the United States and Turkey have virtually collapsed over the last year, just as Ankara and Moscow have seen a significant rapprochement after military skirmishes in 2015.
The Gulf
Conflicts in the Middle East almost always contain the seeds of great power conflict, even if those seeds rarely bloom. As the civil war in Syria has shambled towards its conclusion, attention has shifted to the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Conclusion
The world remains jarringly dangerous. The diplomatic confusion of the Trump administration has only added to this danger, creating uncertainty around the world as to U.S. intentions and capabilities.
While this uncertainty does not always result in opportunities for other states to step up, it does increase the chance for miscalculation in crisis and non-crisis situations.
“I will also gather all nations, and will bring them down into the valley of Jehoshaphat, and will plead with them there for my people and for my heritage Israel, whom they have scattered among the nations, and parted my land”. – Joel 3:2 KJV
Israel Report
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