Morning Briefing
For September 16, 2014
Mid-September Polls Are Not The Last Word On Senate Races
The perennial question about election polls is back again, if ever it left: how far can we trust them? Should we disregard all other evidence but what the current polling of individual Senate races tells us – which is, at this writing, that if the election was held today, Republicans would gain 6 seats in the Senate to hold a narrow 51-48 majority? As usual, a little historical perspective is in order. It is mid-September, with just over seven weeks to Election Day, and as discussed below, all the fundamental signs show that this is at least a mild Republican “wave” year. A review of the mid-September polls over the last six Senate election cycles, all of which ended in at least a mild “wave” for one party, shows that it is common for the “wave party” to win a few races in which it trailed in mid-September – sometimes more than a few races, and sometimes races in which there appeared to be substantial leads, and most frequently against the other party’s incumbents. Whereas it is very uncommon for the wave party to lose a polling lead, even a slim one, after mid-September – it has happened only three times, one of those was a tied race rather than a lead, and another involved the non-wave party replacing its candidate on the ballot with a better candidate. If these historical patterns hold in 2014, we would therefore expect Republicans to win all the races in which they currently lead plus two to four races in which they are currently behind, netting a gain of 8 to 10 Senate seats. . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
|
Remember how the National Republican Senatorial Committee wanted everyone to know just how terrible the Senate Conservatives Fund is?
Remember how NRSC consultants took to op-ed pages, pushed reporters, and tweeted about the lavish and extravagant expenses of SCF?
Remember how when a candidate got endorsed by SCF, everyone knew immediately NRSC would support the opposite candidate out of spite? (See e.g. Ben Sasse v. Shane Osborn)
Remember how the NRSC, Chamber of Commerce, and other establishment groups poured tons of money into primaries to stop SCF gains and those of other outside groups?
Well, NRSC spent so much money trying to ensure its incumbents were protected that it now has no money to pick up new seats. Brilliant strategy there Jerry Moran and Josh Holmes. Just brilliant.
So what is the NRSC doing now? Begging the Senate Conservatives Fund to spend money. . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
Career State Department staffer accuses Hillary Clinton’s staff of sanitizing Benghazi records.
This comes perilously close to being ‘too bad to be true’ territory. Meet Ray Maxwell, former Deputy Assistant Secretary at the State Department – and one of the people fingered, then cleared, of wrongdoing in the Benghazi ambassador disaster. (He since has retired, having served for over two decades. And also, yeah, the entire ‘pariah’ thing.) Mr. Maxwell is now testifying that Hillary Clinton loyalists organized a band of plumbers* to sanitize the relevant files between said disaster, and the inevitable investigation . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
Iowa CBS Affiliate Runs Free Ad for Bruce Braley
You sort of expect liberal media bias at the national level but this astounding segment from a local CBS affiliate out of Cedar Rapids, Iowa ought to count as a donation in kind to Democrat Bruce Braley. Under the guise of “reporting news,” watch as this segment gives the uninterrupted stage to Braley and his surrogates . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
Saudi Arabia cracks down on Christians. Will the United States speak up?
The situation for Christians in the Middle East continues to get worse, but this time, it isn’t at the hands of a terrorist group or band of rebels. It’s from one of our supposed allies in the region: Saudi Arabia. As Fox News reports, this past Friday (September 12th), agents from the country’s Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice rounded up 28 Christians at the home of an Indian national in the city of Khafji, and several Bibles were confiscated as well.. Their condition and whereabouts are currently unknown. . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
The Vine
One of the best things about working in the pro-life movement is all the stories. Yes there is tragedy, but there is also so much hope, so much inspiration, and amazing displays of strength that all lend themselves to help us keep going.
Last week, in the UK, the parents of baby Adelaide decided to release her picture for the world to see. As her parents recount in The Mirror, their daughter did not survive her early birth. It is the second time her mother, Emily Caines, has lost a daughter to premature labor. Caines’ first daughter was born at 23 weeks and Adelaide was born at 24 weeks. It is the fact that she was 24 weeks old that contributed to the Caines’ decision to show Adelaide to the world. In the UK, abortion is legal up to 24 weeks. In showing that Adelaide was “a fully formed human being”, the Caines’ hope to help people understand that abortion truly is killing a child. The couple is now pregnant again but they hope their “story gives hope to others and helps other parents who have suffered a loss.” . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
Don’t forget to check out the latest TECH AT NIGHT.
| >> Today's Sponsor | ||
|
Erick Erickson
Editor-in-Chief, RedState
No comments:
Post a Comment