SILVER STATE CONFIDENTIAL 08/08/2014

Will the GOP Blow Yet Another Golden Opportunity?

Republicans in 2010 and 2012 were uniquely positioned to make gains in the United States Senate and dethrone the most serious impediment to ending DC gridlock: Majority Leader Harry Reid.  As is their wont, they blew both opportunities.

In this November’s mid-term election of a second term president, Republicans will once again have an excellent opportunity to not only hold or increase their lead in the U.S. House of Representatives, but regain the majority in the Senate – especially considering the fact that President Obama is currently suffering the worst approval ratings of his entire presidency.

And as the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake notes in the column below, Democrat voters right now are far less motivated to save Democrats than Republicans are to oust them. 

This is not only good news for GOP dreams of knocking out Reid and his Democrat majority in the Senate, but re-electing Nevada Republican Rep. Joe Heck, who represents a Democrat-majority district.

But don’t take any of this to the bank.  Remember, Republicans traditionally never blow an opportunity to blow an opportunity!

- Chuck Muth, Publisher

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The enthusiasm gap, laid bare

By Aaron Blake | THE FIX

August 7 at 6:30 AM 

It's no secret that key Democratic groups are significantly less enthused about voting in the 2014 election than their GOP-leaning counterparts. A myriad of polls have shown this to be the case.

But perhaps none have shown its potential impact as clearly as the new CBS News poll.

The poll, released Wednesday night, shows Democrats actually maintain a lead on the generic ballot -- i.e. do you intend to vote for a generic Republican or a generic Democrat in the upcoming election -- 41-37. That's where they want to be.

When you drill down on those most excited about voting in the November election, though, it's a very different story.

Among those who say they are "more enthusiastic" than usual about voting -- a little more than one-third of registered voters -- the GOP actually leads ... by seven points, 47-40.

As we've written before, polling that focuses on those who are most likely to vote in the upcoming election is and will be more favorable to the GOP than a lot of the polls you're seeing today -- most of which survey "registered voters" rather than "likely voters."

The CBS numbers aren't quite "likely voters" -- a voter doesn't have to be more enthusiastic than usual to be a likely voter -- but they do show how big the difference in enthusiasm (and, by extension, turnout) could be.

What's more, among those who say they are equally as enthusiastic about voting as previous elections, significantly more are Republican-leaning (14 percent of the GOP) than Democratic-leaning (8 percent).

In a neutral environment, Democrats are supposed to have a slight lead on the generic ballot. Recent history shows the GOP tends to gain even when the generic ballot is close. If they have a generic-ballot lead, as they did in 2010, it's Bad News Bears for Democrats.

There are still three months to go, and this is just the first in a long line of polls that will spotlight the differences between registered voters and those most likely to turn out on Nov. 4, but the fact that the most enthused potential voters favor the GOP by seven points has got to be concerning if you're a Democrat.

Key parts of the so-called "Obama coalition" that delivered the presidency to Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 are historically much more prone to drop off in midterm elections. And for 2014, it's not really a question of ifthe electorate will be worse for Democrats than in 2012, but rather, by how much.

This poll lays bare how serious that problem could be.