Morning Briefing
For November 7, 2012
1. Status Quo Ante
Like when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, we now know what happens when a candidate so weak anybody can beat him meets a candidate so weak he cannot beat anybody. Americans vote for the status quo. $6 billion later, Americans voted for the status quo. Karl Rove, call your donors.
Republicans will keep the House. Democrats will keep the Senate. Obama will keep the White House.
It is what it is. The next two years are going to be some of the most fun and exciting years within the modern American conservative movement.
We know in American politics that nothing is permanent. The question we are going to have to assess is whether Barack Obama’s coalition is a Democratic coalition or a Barack Obama coalition. My personal opinion is that Barack Obama built a winning coalition for Barack Obama and it may not translate to a long term Democratic coalition. Just ask Minority Leader Pelosi and that now endangered creature known as the Democratic Governor.
As the jockeying for 2016 begins soon (and it will begin very soon) we will find out.
The Obama campaign ran a very good campaign. The Republicans did not. There was no fraud. There was no stealing the election. There was just a really good ground game from Barack Obama and a lot of smoke and mirrors from Team Romney and outside charlatans, many of whom will now go work for Republican Super PACs making six figure salaries, further draining the pockets of rich Republicans when not on television explaining how awesome and expert they are. Whether you can bring yourself to say it or not, like it or not, Barack Obama is, today, your President.
There will be a lot of blame to go around, but, if Republicans are honest, they’ll have to concede that the Romney campaign ran a bad campaign and only almost won because the President had a bad debate. Romney could not even win his home state, his second home state, or his vacation home state.
Neither side bothered to put forward a serious agenda that stood for much of anything. Barack Obama ran on beating up Mitt Romney and Mitt Romney ran on running away from himself. He stood for nothing and everything at the same time. At least Barack Obama campaigned on the consistent message of hating Mitt Romney.
Compare Romney to Scott Walker. Scott Walker took on the unions in Wisconsin and won big. Romney barely took on Barack Obama. He drew few lines in the sand, made those fungible, and did not stand on many principles. Americans wanted to assess a contrast between the candidates and got blurred lines instead. They went with the politician they knew instead of the one who was different depending on the election season, constituency, and time of day.
At the same time, Romney made a conscious decision to blow off Hispanic voters. Yes conservatives, we must account for this. The Romney campaign to the hispanic community was atrocious and, frankly, the fastest growing demographic in America isn’t going to vote for a party that sounds like that party hates brown people. That does not mean the GOP must offer up amnesty. It does mean that a group that is a natural fit for the GOP on social issues, must in someway be made to feel comfortable with the GOP.
One more thing before moving on to my larger point, both parties should henceforth agree to never, ever nominate for President anyone from Massachusetts.
As for you conservatives who are convinced today that suddenly we are a socialist nation, sober up and pay attention: the next . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
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2. Baloney
The usual hand wringing is occurring now about social conservatives causing the GOP to lose.
Todd Akin lost because he swallowed his foot and kept gagging on it, not because he is pro-life.
Richard Mourdock was beaten by a Democrat who ran as a pro-lifer.
As for the so called “war on women,” there is no war on women and women did not abandon Mitt Romney for Barack Obama because of their love of killing kids in the womb.
In fact, if you pull out black female voters, the Democrats and Republicans are tied among women. Are black women voting Democrat because they are women or in a consistent pattern with black voters in general.
Blame social conservatives if you must, but (A) you are lying to yourself and (B) if this is a fight you want to have, I’m happy to see you in the primaries in 2014. I like my chances. . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
3. The Charlatans
The GOP spent a ton of money through a bunch of organizations, including Super PACs, that was flat out wasted. The Newt Gingrich Super PAC was just a sign of things to come it seems.
The excuse that is going to be used is that had these groups not spent the money, the GOP would have suffered major losses.
For the past several months, even before the massive barrage of spending started, the GOP led or was even in the generic congressional ballot. There was never a real danger that the GOP would lose the House despite Democratic bluster. The RGA, with little help from the major Super PACs, expanded the Republican gubernatorial margin to the historic level of 30.. . . please click here for the rest of the post →
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