Morning Briefing
For November 5, 2012
1. No, Independents Are Not Just Discouraged Republicans
The centerpiece of my thesis (discussed here and here) that Mitt Romney will win Tuesday’s election is his consistently strong showing among independent voters (ie, voters who identify as neither Republicans nor Democrats) across the majority of national and state polls, pretty much regardless of whether those are polls he’s winning or losing. On that score, I believe the polls; if they’re wrong about the independent vote, my analysis is essentially irrelevant. But if they’re right, I believe I’ll be proven right. If Romney goes on to win independents nationally by 5+ points and carry independents by more than a few points in states like Ohio and Wisconsin, he will win. . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
2. An Election Night Primer on the House Races
There’s been a lot of attention focused on the race for the Senate this year. The House races, on the other hand, have become a forgotten footnote on the 2012 election map. The reason is quite simple: Republicans will retain control of the House, irrespective of the outcome of the presidential election.
At present, Republicans control 242 seats and Democrats control 193 seats (a few of the seats are actually vacant due to early resignations.) Democrats would have to enjoy a wave election in order to bridge the 25-seat gap, and at this point, the election is at best a wash. Due to the aggressive redistricting efforts on the part . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
3. Private Emails From Texas Speaker Joe Straus’s Office Reveal War Against Conservatives
RedState has uncovered never-before-seen, profanity-laden e-mails between senior staff and legislative lieutenants of Texas’ liberal GOP House Speaker Joe Straus demonstrating disrespect for, and even hostility towards, grassroots activists and conservative lawmakers.
Tea party activists are called “idiots,” allies of U.S. Rep. Joe Barton are called “mother f***ers,” and decorated U.S. Marine and State Rep. Van Taylor is dismissed as “stupid,” by a top Straus political strategist. . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
4. Wisconsin Early Voting Gains Solid in GOP Areas
Preliminary and limited data samples indicate that in Wisconsin early voting has tended to increase more in Republican leaning areas than Democratic leaning areas headed into the November 6th election. Wisconsin does not track voters with partisan voter registration and all early voting reporting is done at the municipal level, making it difficult to gather broad samples of early voting data headed into the final weekend of the campaign. What the limited data does show is that early voters in traditional GOP strongholds are turning out in higher numbers than in 2008, while Democratic strongholds are turning out a statistically smaller increase. . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
5. FieldWorks, SEIU, AFL-CIO, Colorado Civic Engagement Roundtable, and Colorado’s ACORN Ground Game
A coalition of unions has coordinated with FieldWorks, a Washington-based consulting firm, to provide ground support for President Obama and liberal Colorado candidates. The Service Employees International Union (SEIU), AFL-CIO and the Colorado Civic Engagement Roundtable have retained FieldWorks, an organization with many similarities to the now-defunct Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN), according to documents uncovered by Media Trackers.
FOX News is now reporting that Ohio officials are reviewing “roughly 200 voter registrations that election officials say were flagged as possibly fraudulent, forged, or duplicated by the group that collected them, FieldWorks, a private Washington, D.C. based firm.” . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
6. ‘Eco-Taxes’ Planned for a Second Obama Term?
The issue of Climate Change has been a no-show in the 2012 election cycle; one would think that ManBearPig had been named an endangered species. But a two-year study commisioned by Barack Obama’s Treasury Department will recommend ways to “green” the tax code by using it to craft disincentives for creating carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
7. So, The IBEW Really Did Put Unionization Ahead of Hurricane Recovery Efforts
There’s been a lot of denials going on since last Friday when it came to light that the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) turned away non-union crews from helping in hurricane ravaged New Jersey because they did not carry union cards . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
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