Submitted by: Terry Payne
Hello Friends,
The attached note, quickly written and perhaps poorly edited or unclear, relates writings and speeches of Putin, Xi, their intentions and actions, and the influence of a long-ago Chinese warrior, Sun Tzu who wrote "The Art of War".
Perhaps my quick notes will be of some interest to you.
Cheers,
Chuck Capt USNR-Ret
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Hi Friends,
"The Art of War"
Once again, the world is confronted with aggression, atrocities, war crimes and a humanitarian crisis as Russia invades Ukraine. Taiwan remains at great risk from China. An Iran on the brink of a nuclear capability and intercontinental delivery system is about to benefit from another “deal” with the US, lifting sanctions, awarding them more cash, and with the US buying Iranian oil.
Although we must deal with the world as it is and going forward, it is worth at least remembering that this was quite possibly avoidable. We did nothing with the foreknowledge that Russia would invade Ukraine and was massing resources to do just that. Instead, we argued that selling arms to Ukraine to deter Russia would be provocative.
We told China what intelligence we had which they promptly gave to Russia and have done nothing to help Taiwan or other countries menaced by Chinse hegemonic ambitions to defend themselves or deter China.
We have repeatedly chosen to be reactive, not proactive, and to expose ourselves to added risk by reducing our energy independence, buying from Russia, and doing nothing to help wean Europe off of Russian oil and gas. We also have alienated the Arab world by cozying up to Iran and infuriated the Israelis by turning our backs on them and the Abraham accords as well as doing nothing meaningful to stop Iran from building a nuclear arsenal.
Yet we are constantly surprised, “disappointed” and left without an adequate response as tyrants, thugs, terrorists, and major countries attack others. We prattle on about diplomatic paths forward, off ramps and not wishing to aggravate aggressors.
One of the things which remains puzzling is we are continually surprised by the actions of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping (to say nothing of Kim Jong Un and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei). Both have long spoken about and published their intentions. Their comments by many I talk with go unread or disbelieved.
People also seem surprised by the tactics they employ. Again, this is traceable to very well-known war fighting doctrine written long ago. There is hardly a secret as to their intentions, their strategy and tactics or even some of the factors shaping their beliefs and behavior.
Earlier, I sent some observations on Chinese History, Culture, beliefs, Confucianism, historic deference to the central authority, the collective and the recent ambitions of the CCP leadership clearly defined in speeches and writings by President Xi Jinping, and various military leaders including Gen Chi Haotian. I included links to papers or speeches and offered to forward downloaded copy if some didn’t want to look via the links. There were no takers.
You may not choose to credit any of my observations, but you don’t have to. It might, however, prove informative to READ what these aggressive leaders and their lieutenants say and write. They make no secret of their goals and means they employ to achieve them.
China’s defined objective in terms of world domination and the centrality of China is both made clear and in line with tradition. Winning in all struggles to achieve these ambitions is paramount. Even with links provided, I find few actually went and read.
Not too long ago, I gave a talk on Islam starting with the question whether any listening had ever actually read the Qur’an, the Hadith, or knew anything of the history of Muhammad, his succession and the conquests of Islam from the 6th C onwards. None had, although several presented themselves as experts on the motivations and intentions of radical Islamists, Iran and the conflicts in the Middle East. Again, I urge reading rather than recitation of talking points and popular opinions as if they were insightful or factual.
Similarly, last summer, a speech by Vladimir Putin spoke to all his twisted history, logic and reasons for the coming aggressions which he clearly spelled out as his objective. It related to his false version of history. There was nothing new in his recent speech as he declared war on Ukraine, much of that merely repeating his widely available, lengthy exposition from July of 2021. Clearly, his intentions are not limited to Ukraine, but at a minimum, the recapture of the former Soviet Empire. Again, I sent a link to quite a few folks but few seem to have read and none expressed any interest. It also would seem our own political class chose not to believe what was so clearly spelled out with respect to overtaking Ukraine and other states which had been a part of the Soviet Empire (the Baltics and Poland for example).
Conflict or competition driven by historical beliefs or experiences, prior domination which was frustrated in one way or another, personal ambition, coveted territory and resources, greed, revenge, ideology whether political or religious, or whatever motivations, often includes ideas about how to "win". The Chinese objective, as clearly stated in recent decades and from a historical perspective, is world domination. In fact, if you follow such things, they also now claim authority over the moon and Mars.
One might look at current world conflicts such as Russia's moves with respect to Europe, the theological fervor of Islam or China's hegemonic ambitions, and wonder if there is a seminal teaching about strategy and tactics which is studied and deployed to win which is studied by these and others. Not to reach some accommodation or compromise, not to achieve a stalemate or stabilization, but win with winning defined as vanquishing, subjugating or eliminating the opponent.
There is such a book.
The strategy and tactics for achieving the goal for China are derived from an ancient warrior and General, Sun Tzu, who wrote a seminal work on the subject of warfare, conflict and winning. It is called “The Art of War”. Sun Tzu’s ideas, while clearly studied by China, also instruct others such as Russia, NoKo, Iran and even some elements within Islam. Of course, there is much written since from Mao to Xi.
Neither our military leadership, nor more particularly our political leaders, diplomats and businessmen should fail to understand this and need to be prepared to deal with opponents dedicated to winning and the methods they are schooled to employ.
If you aren't familiar with Sun Tzu, he is thought to have lived from 544 BC to 496 BC in the kingdom of Qui or Wu, also seen as the Zhou Kingdom. He was a Chinese warrior, military leader, thinker about the application of force, power, and writer who served the King of Wu. He won the top military leadership spot through a demonstration of his ability to organize, lead, command and get troops to unify, train and act in concert to win. That demonstration involved training the King's concubines to work in concert and fight. The execution of two of his favorites who didn't take the exercise seriously enough, while risking the wrath of the King, in fact cemented his leadership position through this demonstration of steely resolve even at risk to himself. He succeeded in defeating competing war lords and establishing the first centralized seat of power in much of what is China today. He served as the military leader throughout the reign of that kind and well into his successors rule, ending his days in retirement as a sage and military genius.
Sun Tzu is credited with writing "The Art if War", a short dissertation on all aspects of conflict, domination, fighting and most particularly winning. He deals not only with strategy and tactics but even the motivation of the country and role of the political leadership in support of a winning strategy.
If you want to gain some understanding of historical aggression and the recent aggressive moves of the Russians, Chinese and others. I recommend you read it. It is widely available in bookstores and libraries.
It has been used for millennia by Chinese leaders and across much of Asia. In recent centuries and especially in the last half of the Twentieth Century, it became widely read, studies and implemented not only by military around the world but by business leaders and politicians. It is widely viewed as most insightful and filled with lessons which have been successfully used for millennia. Those of you who have had business (or other) dealings in Asia will be familiar with the widespread study of the book.
A few of his strategies drawn from the seminal work on war which he wrote, "The Art of War", are instructive to understand Chinese (and Russian) behavior, tactics and strategy today.
While devoting much space to when and how to fight, logistics, planning, strategy, gathering information, tactics, spying and other “arts”, he also places great emphasis on deception, spies, and winning without actually fighting through a variety of influences ranging from propaganda, to scare tactics, demoralization, terror, dividing the enemy, subversion, false flags, sabotage and building overwhelming strength economically as well as militarily.
Here are a few quotes.
· The art of war is a matter of vital importance to the state; the province of life or death; the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied.
Early in his teachings, he refers to five fundamental factors, moral influence, weather, terrain, command, and doctrine. He goes on to say:
· By moral influence, I mean that which causes the people to be in harmony with their leaders, so that they will accompany them in life and unto death without fear of mortal peril.
· All Warfare is based on deception
· To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.
· If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles
· The clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy but does not allow the enemy’s will to be imposed on him.
· Thus, what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy's strategy.
· He whose generals are able and not interfered with by the sovereign, will be victorious
· To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme excellence
· The best victory is when the opponent surrenders of its own accord before there are any actual hostilities...It is best to win without fighting.
· “There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.”
Much of the work is devoted to deception, misdirection, creating doubt and internal conflict among the enemy, spying, using psychological, economic and other means to check mate the befuddled or unprepared enemy and coerce concession or surrender. None the less, he also devotes himself to lessons for actual fighting including logistics, support of the home population, speed of delivery of results, misdirection, attacking an enemy’s weakness (and ways to create that weakness), defense as well as offense and so on.
Russia’s current efforts to divide his opponents, efforts in propaganda, false flag actions, rallying the home population (even if with propaganda and denial of access to other information), threats, amassing overwhelming forces and efforts to extort Putin’s objectives with minimal losses to Russia are instructive. As of this writing, it isn’t clear he fully understood and is applying Sun Tzu’s guidance about actual combat.
Similarly, the many decades long efforts of China to spy, steal technology, subvert or compromise important individuals, penetrate academia, propagandize and mislead as to their ultimate intentions is similarly instructive. While lulling the west and cultivating alliances and dependencies, they have created a massive and ultra-modern military, and economic powerhouse, economic influence and control around the world. They have crafted political alliances and lulled the world into being unaware or ignoring their ultimate objective of control and domination, or even their more immediate first objective of overtaking Taiwan.
We still have dragged our feet on arming Taiwan and maintained this posture of “Strategic Ambiguity”. This means we recognize “one China”, yet mouth “support” for Taiwan. If we don’t soon choose to voice a more definitive position, we may soon be confronted with another invasion, even though Taiwan is of major strategic importance (the world’s major manufacturer of the most advanced chips), and the people now overwhelmingly identify as Taiwanese and have no desire, whatsoever, to be absorbed by China.
If you do nothing else, read.
If our government does nothing else, think ahead and realistically, seeing the situation for what it is not what we wish it were.
Cheers,
Chuck Capt USNR-Ret
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