Submitted by: Terry Payne
The long detailed commentary below is written by a retired USNR Captain familiar with domestic and foreign military defense systems and aviation matters. Well worth the history lessons on intelligence or lack thereof………
Terry
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Friends,
This is written haste, and I am angry as I write so there will likely be typos, wrong dates and certainly controversial thoughts some will loudly decry. So be it. Afghanistan is a DISASTER not only for those trapped but for the future.
Last week, I wrote some thoughts on the catastrophic, disorganized, mismanaged, withdrawal from Afghanistan, what will be read into it by adversaries. Referenced was a post WWII history of US misjudgments, oversights, misstatements, intelligence misses, abandonment or even betrayals which led to such things as the imprisonment of Eastern Europe, the Korean war, a long series of crises relating to Cuba, the fall of S. Vietnam etc.
Things having now gotten worse, I was musing on what happened and what happens next and driven to say something whether or not anybody else cares.
In my view, this is a disaster. It is a humanitarian disaster with many thousand consigned to an awful death in Afghanistan for daring to work to improve their own country and ally themselves with the US. Women are at special risk. Kids who have known nothing but a modernizing society and some measure of freedom are about to be thrown back into 7th C fanatical fundamentalist rule.
The US is humiliated. Our allies feel betrayed. Others at risk around the world are seriously doubting our pledged backing and support.
Our military is ordered to stay within a civilian airfield awaiting terrorized citizens and qualified Afghan personnel to somehow make their way from across the country and through Taliban lines to the fenced airport with no guarantee they can get in. Meanwhile, the French and British have sent their special forces into the country to successfully rescue their own people. Our senior Military, Diplomatic and Executive leadership have shown incredibly poor planning, ignorance and worse, disinterest. We fled with essentially no plan while others died.
What happened? The part of the “deal” relating to our withdrawal *sorry Trump supports but a stupid deal relying on totally unreliable, hostile liars), that being the promised massive retaliation if certain conditions were not met or adhered to, was abandoned by the Biden administration. Instead, they declared an end date of 31 Aug. for a complete withdrawal.
In what appears a catastrophically stupid plan, we failed to do the obvious. That would be to keep key bases functioning, especially Bagram Air Force base, with surveillance capabilities, much better aviation facilities and a large defensible footprint. We failed to plan with our allies, failed to get our citizens out and failed the many Afghans who worked with us, for their country and fought for their country.
Yes, tens of thousands Afghans fought and died over the last 20 years and in the last 18 months while we sustained zero casualties. Over 19 years, coalition forces lost 3,502. The Afghans lost 70,000 including 7000 in 2019 and 3560 to July 2020. There have been untold civilian casualties as well. How dare Biden say they were cowards, wouldn’t fight and threw down their arms?
They were carrying the burden, albeit with our support in intelligence, supply and air strikes. In fact, they didn’t all quit and run away. The VP and many have retreated to the Panjshir Valley, with its concentration of Tajiks, and home of the “Northern Alliance”, once headed by Ahmad Shah Masood whose assassination was arranged by bin Laden and now led by his son Ahmad Masood.
The Northern Alliance fighters were leaders in the fight against the Soviets, as well as the Taliban. They were the people who helped our CIA and Special Forces who went in immediately after 9/11, in October 2001, in fact and who took down the Taliban and much of al Qaeda and chased the remnants into Pakistan. They never stopped fighting the Taliban and remain in the fight to this day. And we demean them? Insult them? Will we stand by them now or are we in total flight mode?
What should have been done?
First, get an agreed plan of action with all our allies, many of which have troops and assets in country. We didn’t, but made a unilateral decision to their great distress. This would certainly include the functioning Afghan government and military. They were even excluded from the “negotiations” with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, led by a thug released from Gitmo by Obama in exchange for the traitor/deserter, Bowe Bergdahl.
Make provision to somehow continue to provide intelligence, surveillance, air support for their forces and reliable resupply. This requires a first and primary decision. Were we going to leave a small force in country to provide critical , as the NATO allies wanted and expected. Biden unilaterally decided no, and closed our bases and withdrew our forces.
Second, get all civilians safely out of the country along with all contractors and support personnel, NGOs, charitable organization personnel and any others. No provision was made to do this and as best one can tell, no thought was even given to the problem.
Third, recognize that without the contractors, the Afghan forces which have fought and borne the casualties, especially in the last two years when we lost no US troops, would likely be overwhelmed. Given that there are Afghans who did not wish to submit and would fight on, make provision for help. In fact, the VP and others of the military have gone to the Panjshir Valley to join with the remnants of the “Northern Alliance” and at this moment are fighting on with no known support from the US.
Forth, plan for the promised removal and sanctuary for translators, others who supported and worked with us and their families.
Fifth, remove or plan to disable all critical weapons, material, supplies and ammunition. Bad enough to lose equipment provided to the Afghans, but why on earth would we pack up and run without removing or at least destroying our equipment.
Sixth, either arrange to protect the embassy or plan an orderly closing to include careful destruction or removal of all classified material, all material which might identify and condemn Afghans, should the government fall and Taliban sweep to power. It turns out we left all the records, even pay records and bank records concerning those who helped in the fight and the Taliban have already retrieved this information and using the names, addresses and phone numbers to track down and kill.
Seventh and lastly, withdraw the troops, destroying or removing the balance of equipment as we departed. Do so in coordination with our NATO allies.
So what happened? We made a unilateral decision to leave without notice to our NATO allies, closed Bagram and other key bases and outposts, abandoned the embassy leaving critical records for the Taliban to use against Afghans and who knows who else and are now stuck with a smaller, inferior civilian airport to remove people. We have the problem of 10,000 or more US civilians stranded outside the perimeter of the airport with no way to retrieve them. There are many tens of thousands of at risk Afghans. Who knows who else we have put at risk.
Correction to the President and top Pentagon “leaders”, we have the means if we had the will but evidently the troops reintroduced to the country, located on this one small airfield, have been ordered not to sally forth to rescue anybody. We have told any seeking to get out to make their way from wherever they may be in Afghanistan to Kabul (which may mean a thousand miles or more through Taliban territory) to Kabul and somehow get to the gates. It appears, however, the gates aren’t open at all times, we aren’t able or willing to process applicants, US or Afghan, and are turning away those who lost, had confiscated, or got rid of their documents in order to try to get through without being identified. Women are passing babies over the wire. Crowds outside are being fired on by Taliban thugs.
We aren’t going out into Kabul, let alone to other points where our citizens were working, as the French and Brits did with elite troops, to find and safely bring in their civilians. Allegedly we don’t have the forces (or the will) to do it and are solely focused on operating the civilian airport for evacuations.
We have absolutely no leverage with the Taliban and have to rely on their good offices to get out people out. In fact, the Taliban have the leverage with the potential for holding hostages and extorting the US for their release. Worse, they might not even talk to us but allow the Chinese or Russians to “mediate” or “negotiate” for the release of US citizens.
The first days of withdrawal were chaos with mobs surging on the airfield, vastly overloaded C-17s trying to wade through the mob to depart, people falling from the exterior of the fuselage as the plane climbed out, and a mangled corpse found in the wheel well when the plane landed in Qatar. Now people are being beaten and killed outside the fence and throughout the country reports of atrocities, abuse and restriction of women, beatings and executions and house to house searches with lists of those targeted for death or punishment for collaboration obtained from abandoned facilities (Afghan and US).
Now what? It isn’t clear if we will stay after 31 Aug to try to retrieve any US citizens or others who couldn’t make it to the airport in time or at all. Biden initially said no, then seems to have amended that to maybe. It seems unlikely that we will ultimately get all our people safely out as they are spread throughout the country, and whatever control the Taliban leadership might be able to exert in Kabul, it is unlikely they can, will or even wish to subdue the radical savages throughout the country.
Moreover, I think the damage to our alliances, particularly NATO and especially the UK, France and Germany, as well as Australia, is massive. I think they will have little trust or faith in our word, our staying power, or our reliability. They can’t even seem to count on our keeping them informed.
Our sudden support of the Palestinians, resumption of payments to them, backing away from Israel and the Abraham accords must worry Israel, Jordan and the Gulf States.
Others, such as India, Singapore, Philippines, Taiwan and Japan, to name but a few, must really wonder if we will honor treaties, agreements or pledges and whether, if attacked or put under enormous economic and military pressure, we will help.
China is involved in conflict on the N. Indian border, crushing the culture of Tibet, has broken their word and subjugated Hong Kong and is routinely threatening Taiwan. A major danger is the already Islamist Pakistan, armed with nuclear weapons and an ISI sympathetic to the Taliban and seeking an even more radical Islamist rules in Pakistan, will fall in with the Taliban led Afghanistan and inflame their conflict with India over Kashmir.
This debacle is being watched closely. What will we do? How will the US in general react?
Our adversaries have watched while we killed our own energy independence, and now have had to beg OPEC to increase production, which they have refused to do.
They have watched as we beg to get back into the JCPOA while ignoring Iran’s race to create more U235 metal for the implosion devices for more efficient and miniaturized nuclear warheads. We have also ignored their work, allowed under JCPOA, perfecting ballistic missiles, reentry vehicles, guidance and targeting for missiles, and built more advanced centrifuges. WE have also overlooked their ongoing involvement in Iraq, Syria and Yemen and support for Hezbollah and Hamas. In fact we have pushed other countries to release large sums to Iran before any deals were concluded.
They have watched as we do nothing about our porous border and mishandle millions of illegal immigrants, many infected with Covid and few if any tested for that or any other disease but dispersed across the country in the dead of night.
Moreover, they watch, or in the case of China conspire, as drugs, especially fentanyl, flood into our country and in an epidemic of addiction and overdoses, tens of thousands of our citizens die.
They have watched as we have triggered damaging inflation with massive spending, plans for even more wild spending ahead, Fed and Treasury conspiring to create and buy in debt with nonexistent resources to suppress interest rates and create huge floods of “money” to stimulate and already stimulated economy.
They have watched as we “defund” the police, reduce police numbers and refuse to prosecute crimes while our major cities descend in chaos.
They have watched as we overwork, fail to maintain or update our military and are overextended. For example, at the moment we have no Carrier in Asia and just gave up a key base, listening post and masses of equipment in Afghanistan.
They have watched this seemingly ill planned and catastrophic withdrawal and now our begging the Taliban to let our people get to the airport in Kabul for evacuation.
It seems worth worrying about how China, Russia, Iran and Terrorists will assess all this. It seems well worth worrying that it will be interpreted as major US weakness, a lack of determination, will, clear thinking and decision making and overall weakness not only in support of our interests overseas or our allies, but even to maintain order in our own society.
Such an interpretation might well encourage a move by any aggressor or those wishing to simply farther weaken and humiliate the U.S. Taiwan, Ukraine, the Baltics, Israel all are likely at greater risk but so is much of the rest of the world. China can control much of the world economy with control of the S. China Sea. Iran is positioned to control energy flows from the Persian Gulf through the Straits of Hormuz and to Europe through the Red Sea by using Yemen to threaten the Bab el Mandeb.
In short, the world seems a much more dangerous place than it was even a few short weeks ago. It is time for less distractions and fights over woke-ness, allowable speech, teaching of CRT and 1619 theories with more focus on defense, deterrence, living up to our obligations and agreements, stabilization of the economy, restoration of law and order (yes, you Progressives, I know you will call that code words of some kind), and regaining control of our borders along with an orderly and beneficial to the US immigration system.
Safety of our citizens is the first duty of the Government.
Shame on our leaders, civilian and military. Shame on those military leaders spending their time on woke training and “white anger” rather than training, teamwork, building and maintaining a fighting force. Shame for intelligence failures and the politicization of our military, justice departments and intelligence agencies. Shame for the lack of planning and the courage to actually try to bring non-conformist views and information to the attention of superiors. Shame on the clueless politicians making thoughtless decisions without a plan or a thought to the consequences. Shame on those in our population. who don’t care, aren’t worried, are ignoring this mess along with all the other major US catastrophes from crime to the border, from inflation to the state of our defenses.
Normally, I end communications with “Cheers”
This time, sorrow and concern.
By the way, for the record, I am repeating my thoughts about catastrophic decisions since WWII with bad outcomes.
I am adding a list of major massive intelligence failures. Whether its failures, politicians who won’t listen or stupidity, seems to me there is plenty to worry about.
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DECISIONS WITH VERY BAD CONSEQUENCES
In 1945, we abandoned E. Europe at the end of WWII turning it over to the Soviets. We pretended to believe that somehow, Poland and other countries would be offered some self-determination. Wrong. The ignited cold war went on until 1990 and we are still confronted by a hostile post USSR Russia.
In 1950, we (Secretary of State Acheson) declared S. Korea outside our interests (not within a defensive containment line against Communism and the Soviets), leading Stalin to allow Kim Il-sung to invade the South and the Korean war.
In 1960 we abandoned and fled Cuba (politically and economically, but we weren’t in there militarily except for our enclave at Guantanamo deeded to us decades earlier) in the face of the insurgent Castro’s advances. We didn’t understand the likelihood he would sweep to power. That led to the Bay of Pigs, refugee crisis and Missile crisis and years of Cuban destabilization efforts and support for insurgencies in both S. America and Africa. (60,000 to Angola, alone but also in Algeria, Congo, Ethiopia, Nicaragua as well as trying to intervene in Panama, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela).
1975 Despite a pledge to rearm, resupply and support the functioning government of South Vietnam, Congress refused any farther involvement and the abandonment led to the invasion and take over by the North.
1978-9 Iran, we abandoned the Shah in Iran and the western leaning, liberalizing government, leading to the takeover by the Ayatollah Khomeini and an Islamic governance, hostages, terror and now a nuclear armed sponsor of terror.
1993 there was the intervention in Somalia, then an attempt at nation building leading to Black Hawk down and flight leading to al Shabaab and a terror state. Evidently we didn’t appreciate the tribal nature or power the insurgents.
2011 In Libya, after Gadhafi mellowed, gave up his nukes and tried to make nice, we basically turned our back on him leading to his death, chaos, a failed state and Benghazi.
2015 After a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq leading to ISIS and the reinsertion of troops. ISIS rose, imposed radical Islamic rule through a Caliphate then ruled in much of Iraq and Syria, committing the most awful atrocities, destroying historic sites and threatening farther incursions requiring reentry of troops and a fight to quell the ISIS threat.
2021 and now Afghanistan and a withdrawal which has turned out to chaotic flight and abandonment of many who we promised to protect or get out. Turns out not only administration planning and slow motion, lack of action, but incredible bureaucratic delays means tens of thousands awaiting visas are now left to the mercy of the Taliban. So there we were, today, as chaos and collapse fell upon us, begging the Taliban to spare our embassy, maybe to enjoy future US aid, and to think about International Community opinion. Begging. Pleading.
2021 Arguably (and in slow motion) Israel as we speak is also at risk as we drop sanctions on Iran, ignore their nukes and begin funding the Palestinians once again. We are begging Iran to rejoin the JCPOA. Begging while they are miles ahead with reentry vehicles, casting of fissionable material into spheres for implosions, have perfected the techniques for implosions and neutron enhancers for more lethal weapons. Begging. Pleading.
AS TO INTELLIGENCE, I would argue we missed the following oncoming threats and likely much more. One or another of these events remain the source of conspiracy theories and or counter arguments that we had information and ignored it.
PEARL HARBOR AND DAY AFTER ATTACK IN PHILIPPINES
7 Dec 1941. Arguably, the decoders of the Japanese diplomatic code had the message which should have alerted, but administration ignored it. There were other warnings including from the ambassador in Japan and even a ship sighting. But overall, the whole situation with invasion of China after Manchuria, buildup of army and navy, spying on Pearl Harbor anchorage etc all should have caused an alert.
8 Dec 1941. Despite Pearl Harbor, the next day we were caught totally flat footed in the Philippines and lost our air assets all caught on the ground.
1945 Failure to see cold war coming despite Churchill warnings and Roosevelt delusion of letting Stalin grab Eastern Europe.
1947 SOVIET NUKES BASED ON THEFT OF SECRETS. Their tests surprised us.
1950 – KOREA
• On Jan. 12, 1950, U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson delivered a famous speech at the National Press Club in which he failed to include South Korea in America's defense perimeter in the Pacific
• North invades south June 1950. Totally surprised and unprepared. Stalin had refused to give NoKo and Kim Il Sung permission to invade until US Secretary of state failed to include Korea in a speech about spheres of influence. He also noted our unilateral disarmament and failure to protect Poland or E. Europe all of which had come under his sway. Additionally, the USSR now had the bomb, a major military force with modern bombers etc. He authorized the invasion in April 1950.
• China enters war Nov 1950, despite MacArthur assurances they would not. Total surprise. Disaster and withdrawal by US.
1957 Soviet Launch of Sputnik. Evidently we were unaware either of their progress with missiles or the planned launch of the first satellite.
1962 CUBA we missed the insertion of missiles and even how far along they were on arming them and their lack of control over the use of those missiles or the nuclear torpedoes on their subs lurking nearby.
• Number of Soviet Troops installed on island. Our top estimate was less than ¼ of the actual
• Initially, installation of missiles,
• Then nuke warheads
• Never caught on to tactical nukes also delivered to island, never revealed until end of cold war and opening of records.
• Then nuke torpedo subs
• Until decades later the ability of local commanders to fire nukes without control, authorization or approval of Moscow
1968 USS Pueblo taken by NoKo with all secrets immediately scooped up by Soviets
• Jan 23rd, ship was sent into dangerous waters with prior incidents. When attacked, no air or sea help came to their rescue as we were totally surprised and unprepared. Major loss of crypto equipment and electronic sensors listening to radars and other electronics. We evidently had no clue this was a planned capture backed by the Soviets.
VIETNAM –
• 1968 TET offensive total surprise
• Use of Chemical weapons by North and China, especially in Cambodia, denied and to this day still denied by our own people
• Invasion from the North after supposed Peace deal in Paris which led to the panicked flight, the helicopters lifting from the embassy roof, overrunning of the south, murder and retraining, and flight by tens of thousands, the lucky ones.
USSR MASSIVE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM. Also China. See books by Ken Alibek and others. Despite “Biohazard” written by Soviet Officer who defected, had headed the program, many like Teddy Kennedy continue to deny.
• Ken Alibek defected 1992. His book and prior rank and position as head of their program still raised no alarms and was poo poohed in Congress
CHINA NUKES
INDIA AND PAKISTANI NUKES
S AFRICAN NUKES
LIBYA NUKES
NOKO NUKES
All Based on sale of information and equipment by A. Q. Kahn, a Pakistani who stole his information in Europe.
USSR INVASION OF AFGHANISTAN
• Dec 1959. Conflict lasted to 1989. Totally missed the massing for and timing of the invasion.
SPIES AND TURNCOATS – Totally missed all the clues and took years to find
• Aldrich Ames CIA arrested 1994 30 year career
• Walker Family, John, Navy, spied 1967-85. Son Michael, Navy , John Whitworth (friend)
• Robert Hannsen FBI arrested 2001 many decades a spy
• Others including the Cambridge England spy ring, Cambridge 5, Kim Philby, Guy Burgess, Don MacLean, Anthony Blunt and John Cairncross, one of whom, MacLean came to US and worked with/spied on us.
IRAN 1978-9 OVERTHROW OF THE SHAH – RETURN OF RADICAL ISLAMISTS – ISLAMIC THEOCRACY SET UP
• Monarchy overthrown 1 April 1979. Shah flees. Khomeini declared Iran an Islamic republic. The Iranian Revolution was a series of events involving the overthrow of the 2,500 years of continuous Persian monarchy under Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, who was supported by the United States, and eventual replacement with an Islamic republic under the Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the revolution, supported by various leftist and Islamist organizations and student movements. We totally missed the possibility the revolution was coming let alone would succeed.
• November 4, 1979 – January 20, 1981, (444 days or 1 year, 2 months, 2 weeks and 2 days) Embassy taken with hostages held 444 days.
1990 IRAQ invasion of Kuwait, 2 AUG 1990. Even after assembly of invasion force and on night invasion started, still missed it. Totally taken by surprise. Even ambassador was reporting Saddam Hussein had no intention of invading Kuwait the night before his troops marched in.
1993 FIRST ATTACK ON WTC 26 Feb 1993. Bomb in underground garage almost downs buildings.
1995 BOJINKA Plot 1995. a large-scale, three-phase attack planned by terrorists Ramzi Yousef and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed for January 1995. Used Ramzi Yusef who was also responsible for WTC attack. Also plotting to kill the Pope.
1996 - KHOBAR TOWERS attack in Saudi Arabia with massive casualties.
2000 Attack on USS Cole in Aden Harbor. Despite a previous attempt on a US ship in that harbor we evidently had no clue there was any danger.
9-11-2001 SECOND TERROR ATTACK ON WTC, Pentagon and plane downed in PA
2003 IRAQ WAR, March 20, 2003 ended December 18, 2011
• WMD leading to Iraq war. Were they real? Still debated. Hussein had a nuke program but probably suspended.. He had a Chemical program but probably not the mobile labs portrayed. He had a biological program, but maybe not yet deliverable. We did find centrifuges, chemicals and stuff but populat story is the Bush administration lied and there was no reason to go after Iraq.
• Were they involved, or not, in the WTC attack?
2013 SYRIA giving up all chemical weapons 2013. Then using Chlorine. Now secret undisclosed facilities with worse stuff. It is clear now they did have huge stocks, didn’t declare it all, kept some, made more and continue using it.
2014 Rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, while we abandoned Iraq.
IRAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM.
• Supposed halt in 2007-
• Missed secret underground facility at Fordo
• Missed secret facilities at Fordow
• Missed testing of neutron accelerators and implosion devices
• Missed casting of fissionable u235 for implosion spheres
2013 TALIBAN – death of mullah Omar in 2013-Taliban announces 31 July 2015 and we hadn’t known.
UFO/UAP 1960s to 2021
• After years of coverup, Bllue Book studies, various reports all purporting to debunk, Trump finally ordered a report to be delivered in 2021. Report finally reveals there are many sighting on multiple sensors by multiple simultaneous witnesses, concluding there is something real, not just hysteria, weather balloons, planet sightings, swamp gas or all the other excuses.
2021 July August missed planned Taliban attacks for summer fighting season in Afghanistan, didn’t appreciate what a precipitous withdrawal with no plan, removal of air assets, removal of support for Afghan air where onl civilian technicians and US provided parts could keep helicopters and planes flying, discounted their ability, totally overrated the Afghan fighting forces and capability, didn’t understand the critical need for air ground support, never understood the tribal nature of a non-country and thought a central government could somehow create a unified country where none ever existed. Discounted speed of advance, denied speed of advance, mistook their intentions as thinking they somehow cared about “international approval or opinion”
2021 Still don’t seem to appreciate China’s ambition to take over Taiwan. Still talking about Hong Kong like “solution” with independence and freedoms even though China just voided their promises and agreements with Britain and imposed absolute rule and control on Hong Kong in 2021.
2021 Abandoning Israel failing to appreciate Iran threat or how Israel must respond, initially to Hezbollah and Hamas rocket attacks and eventually Iran nukes. Brief review of our failures and withdrawals and/or lack of support to friendly governments leading to DISASTERS AND WARS
END OF MESSAGE
XXXXXX CAPT. USNR-Ret
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