Greetings, most people are still unaware that classic Coronavirus is the second leading cause of..............THE COMMON COLD, after Rhinovirus, which is #1. So most Coronaviruses have caused mild disease, from time immemorial. Unfortunately, in 2003, we were confronted by a NOVEL strain of Coronavirus that was much tougher, called SARS COV. SARS was very contagious and much more virulent than the classic Coronavirus strains
In fact, I attended to one case of SARS that we reported from one of our Hospitals.Guess where the SARS was first found? Yes, in Asia, specifically in southern China. After all of the worry and fanfare , there were only a total of about 8,100 cases of SARS in 2003, resulting in 774 deaths.(a case fatality rate of 3.8%)
The first MERS cases were reported in September of 2012 from Saudi Arabia-also a novel Coronavirus, similar but not the same as SARS and COVID -19.Again, much trepidation but strong notes of reassurance from Government officials(unlike the fear-mongering and politicization of the COVID-19 we're getting now).MERS had a case-fatality rate of 34.9% Wow, a 35% case-fatality rate from MERS!So, how many cases were there and how many deaths occurred, from 2012-through the fall of 2019?...200,000? 400,000? No,there were only 2,494 cases, total, during the time period from 2012- to 2019, with a total of 858 deaths, worldwide.
Now compare the case fatality rate to COVID -19 , which so far has been calculated at 2.3 %. So, these numbers should be sobering and reassuring, at least for the present time.Now, I can't run a seminar here on Public Health and Epidemiology but there ARE differences in the way we calculate Case-Fatality rate(Number of deaths from a disease, divided by the total number of cases, expressed as a ratio and then x 100 to get %) and the Mortality Rate(the number of deaths occurring during a given time-period x 10 to the power of n,(usually 3 or per 1000 individuals) divided by the size of the population from which those deaths were found)So far, the total number of cases of COVID-19 has been reported as 85,000(75,000 from China).Deaths reported have been 2943, 2200 of which occurred in China.
Yes, the Case -Fatality rate can fluctuate, depending on the total number of cases diagnosed at the particular time frame being studied.The size of the population used as the divisor for calculating Mortality rates is usually taken from the measured population at the mid-stage of the epidemic. The lesson here is follow the numbers prospectively for now and remember that statistics can still be misleading. COVID -19 -Many medications are already being studied----Landscape analysis of therapeutics as 17 February 2020 -from WHO .In fact, we have been testing many different Meds since SARS COV, and MERS were first discovered (,in 2003 and 2012 respectively.)Since the 3 novel strains are similar, (though not exactly the same) these drugs may offer some real therapeutic hope for COVID-19.I'm especially high on the prospects for Remdesivir , which is a Nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor(similar to Tenofovir, which we use in HIV patients and in the pre-exposure prophylaxis of patients at high risk for developing HIV)) from Gilead pharmaceuticals.
NIH clinical trial of Remdesivir
In conclusion, the facts that most COVID-19 cases are mild, that the statistical evidence we have to date is fairly reassuring and that we have real prospects for therapeutic and vaccine breakthroughs, should be moderately reassuring to all rational thinking individuals.Sure, we should continue to prepare for the worst case scenario, but we must not be manipulated or waylaid by the hype.
Thanks. Right now, COVID-19 is far more of an economic risk than a risk for large numbers of deaths (in spite of "conspiracy theory" claims about that too). Unfortunately, it does appear to be relatively easy to transmit.
How quickly a vaccine could be developed is still unknown. And even with a vaccine, the consequences will not be minimal.
21 hours ago
16 hours ago - ... With these conditions an economic shock can do a lot of damage, as people and businesses don't have the cash flow to make debt payments.
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 32 million flu illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths from flu. Interim estimates of 2019-2020 flu vaccine effectiveness were released last week.
3 days ago - According to a Feb. 21 CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the current influenza vaccine has been 45% effective overall against 2019-2020 seasonal influenza A and B viruses. Specifically, the flu vaccine has been 50% effective against influenza B/Victoria viruses and 37% effective against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09
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