Searching for Russia
[Note from the Saker: some
of you did notice that I was not posting very much and that I was not
replying to emails as much as I used to. Now I
can confess: I was on a semi-confidential trip abroad in a locate with
very spotty Internet access (slow, through my smartphone’s dataplan). I
am now back and I will post a full report about this, and my latest
appeal for support, either on Monday or Tuesday.
Until then, please stay tuned. Kind regards and hugs to all, the Saker]
***
This
article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/
Whether one likes Russia or not, I think
that everybody would agree that this country is really different,
different in a profound and unique way. And there is some truth to that.
One famous Russian author even wrote that “Russia
cannot be understood rationally” (he used the expression “cannot be
comprehended by the intellect”). Add to this already some rather
eccentric politicians like Vladimir Zhirinovskii who is known to mix
very rational and well-informed analyses with utter nonsense
and you get the famous “Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside
an enigma”. Frankly, this is just some witty hyperbole, Russia is not
that mysterious. She is, however, rather dramatically different from the
west, central and east European countries
and even though a big chunk of Russia lies inside the European
continent west of the Urals, in civilizational terms she is far removed
from the so-called “West”, especially the modern West.
For example, Russia never underwent any
“Renaissance”. I would even argue that Russia never really underwent any
Middle-Ages either since, being an heir to the East Roman Empire (aka
Byzantium), Russian roots are in the Antiquity.
While one could, arguably, describe the phases of western civilization
as Middle-Ages -> Renaissance -> Modernity -> Contemporary era,
in the case of Russia the sequence would be a much shorter Antiquity
-> Modernity -> Contemporary era.
[Sidebar: you will notice that I did
place the roots of the modern western civilization in the Middle-Ages,
not in the antiquity. The reason for that is the fact that when the
Franks finally conquered the western Roman Empire
they destroyed it to such a degree that the era following the collapse
of the western Roman Empire is called the “Dark Ages” (Russia, by the
way, never went through this millennium of darkness and, hence, she
never had any need for any “renaissance” or “re-birth”).
Contrary to the official historical narrative, the current western
civilization has never had any root into the Roman Empire, and even less
so, the Greek antiquity. The true founders of the “western world” were,
in so many ways, the Franks]
I would therefore argue that while
geographically speaking Russia (at least the most populated part of her)
is in Europe, culturally she has never shared a common history or, even
less so, a common culture with the West. To say
that Russia is “Asian” is also problematic for two crucial reasons:
first, Russia, as a culture, was born from the Baptism of ancient “Rus”
by Saint Vladimir in the late 10th century. The brand of Christianity
received by Russia was Roman, not the Frankish
one. I don’t believe that anybody would seriously argue that Rome or
Byzantium were “Asian”. So the cultural and spiritual roots of Russia
are not Asian. Ethnically speaking, most Russians are Slavs, mixed to
various degrees with other ethnic groups. And though
I personally find the category “White” of dubious analytical value, I
don’t think that anybody would seriously argue that “Whites” are Asians.
That leaves us with the Russian state, the Russian polity and here,
yes, I would argue that it was the Asian Tatar-Mongol
(an inaccurate and misleading term, but that is the commonly used one)
invaders which created the modern Russian state. The complicating factor
here is that since Russia became a western-style Empire under Peter I
she has been ruled by a mostly westernized
elite which had much more in common with the elites of western Europe
than with the majority of the Russian people. Both the 18th and 19th
century in Russia were marked by a ruthless, and often violent,
imposition of western political, social, cultural and
religious models by the Russian ruling elites upon the Russian masses.
This is a complex and multifaceted process which saw many contradictory
phenomena taking place and we can argue forever about it but what is
certain is that this process ended in 1917 with
a bourgeois (masonic) liberal coup d’etat, followed, eight months later,
by a Communist takeover and a bloody civil war. While neither the
February coup nor the Communist takeover in November were true
“revolutions”, the year 1917, taken as a whole, saw an
immense revolution take place: one ruling class was completely replaced
by a completely different one.
I have neither the time nor intention
here to discuss the Soviet period here, I have done so many times
elsewhere, but I will only present my main conclusion here: there is no
way to consider the Soviet period as a continuation
of the pre-1917 Russia. Yes, geographically speaking the USSR more or
less covered the previous Russian Empire and, yes, the population which
lived in pre-1917 Russia continued to live in the new Soviet Union, but
the roots of the dominant Bolshevik/Communist
ideology in power were not found in ancient Russia and in the
traditional Russian cultural, spiritual and religious values: there
roots were imported from the West (just as the main leaders of the
Bolshevik uprising for that matter). I would therefore argue
that in 1917 one type of western elite (the aristocracy) was replaced
by another type of western elite (the Communist Party) and that both of
them were “imports” and not “Russian intellectual products”. I would
even go further, and argue that the Russian people,
culture and civilization have been persecuted for the last 300 years
and that only with the arrival of Vladimir Putin at the helm of the
Russian state did this persecution end.
Let me immediately clarify that these
past three centuries were not uniform and that some periods were better
for the Russian people and some worse. I would submit that the period
when Petr Stolypin was Prime Minister (1906-1911)
was probably the best time for Russia. The worst times for the Russia
happened only six years later
when the Lenin-Trotsky gang seized power and immediately began
indulging in a genocidal campaign against everything and anything
“Russian” in the cultural,
spiritual or intellectual sense (this bloody orgy only abated in 1938).
All in all, even with very strong variations, I believe that in a
cultural and spiritual sense, the Russian nation was oppressed to
various degrees roughly between 1666 and
1999. That is 333 years: a long period by any standards.
And then there is modern Russia, which I
call “New Russia”. Clearly not the Russia of pre-1917, but not the
Soviet Russia either. And yet, a Russia which, for the first time in
three centuries, is finally in the process of gradually
shaking off western cultural, political and socio-economic models and
which is trying to re-establish what I call the “Russian civilizational
realm”. Of course, we should not be naive here: Putin inherited a
political system entirely created by US “advisers”
whose sole purpose was to further oppress and exploit the Russian
people. The human and economic costs of the Gorbachev and Eltsin years
can only be compared to the effects of a major war. And yet, out of this
horror, came a leader whose loyalty was solely
to the Russian people and who set out to liberate Russia from her
foreign oppressors. This process of “sovereignization” is far from
completed and will probably take many years and go through many ups and
downs, but it has undeniably been initiated and, for
the first time in centuries, the ruler of the Kremlin is not somebody
whom the West can hope to subdue or coopt.
Hence the hysterical paranoia about Putin and his evil Russkies.
The West is terrified by the very real risk that for the first time in 333 years Russia might become truly Russian again.
Scary thought indeed.
Consider the record of what we can call
“oppressed Russia”. It began by the defeat by Peter I of one of the
greatest European military power, Sweden, during the Great
Northern War (1700-1721). If you are interested, take a look at
this Wikipedia list of Russian wars between 1721 and 1917 and pay
special attention to those wars listed as “defeat” for Russia and notice
that with the exception of the Crimean War, the Russo-Japanese
War and WWI Russia won all of her relevant/important wars (wars in
which Russia played a major role or had a major stake). I personally
would not consider that Russia lost the war against Japan (neither do
Japanese historians, by the way), and in the case
of WWI Russia basically self-destructed on the eve of victory. As for
what I call the “Great Ecumenical War against Russia” (it united the
Latins, the Anglicans and the Ottoman Muslims together), I would call it
an “ugly draw” whose worst consequences for
Russia were soon mitigated. Contrast this with the really important
war, the Napoleonic aggression on Russia in which Russia single handedly
defeated a coalition basically uniting all of Europe against Russia.
Take a look at this photo of a monument at the
location of the biggest battle of the war, the battle of Borodino, and
check out the list of countries allied together against Russia:
|
France Italy Naples Austria Bavaria Berg Saxony Westfalia Prussia Holland Spain Portugal Poland Switzerland German Confederation Total: 20 nations Infantry: 145’000 Cavalry: 40’000 Canons: 1’000 |
 |
That is 15 countries against Russia.
There were fewer agressors during the “Great Ecunenical War” but three
out of four of those aggressors were be not just countries, but entire
empires: French Empire, British Empire, Ottoman
Empire. Whether it is 15:1 countries of 3:1 empires, a pattern begins
to emerge. And while during WWII only six countries participated in the
initial invasion of the Soviet Union (Germany, Romania, Finland, Italy,
Hungary, Slovakia) in reality there were numerous
more or less “volunteer” units which joined in.
European unity at its best indeed.
Each time Europe gathered all her forces
to finally defeat, subdue, conquer and assimilate Russia, Russia
prevailed and only got bigger and stronger. That despite being, in so
many ways, a crippled Russia, torn apart by profound
internal contradictions, ruled by an elites which the Russian masses
found uninspiring at best. True, individual Czars during these years
were truly popular, but the regime, the order, was hardly one I would
consider as popular or representative of the worldview
and culture of the Russian masses. And yet Russia won. Over and over.
Despite being weak.
Some will say that this is the long gone
past, that the world is different today, that nobody in Europe thinks
about these wars. But this is not true. For one thing, every one of
those wars was accompanied by a frenzied Russia-bashing
campaign in the media and literature and all these wars were
represented as fought in the name of lofty European values and against
the barbaric hordes from the savage East. And in the years when Russia
was not the object of a military attack she was always
the object of economic sanctions under one pious pretext or another.
King Solomon was right when he wrote “The thing that hath been, it
is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be
done: and there is no new thing under
the sun”. Gradually and insidiously, the hatred and fear of Russia
became part of the western cultural identity. Considering how the West
learned to fear a crippled and weakened Russia, can you imagine the
terror a truly united Russia would inspire?
Do you know what Putin’s political party is called? “United Russia”, of course.
Keep in mind that during these years
Russia was ruled by a hopelessly pro-Western elite and that every
Russian ruler from Peter I to Dmitry Medvedev, with the exception of
Alexander III and Joseph Stalin, wanted to be accepted
as an equal partner by the West. But the western elites had no use for a
partner or an ally, what they wanted was a compliant slave.
Vladimir Putin has made it quite clear that he has no such plans at all.
Speaking of Putin, there is something
else in his rule which makes him quite unique: his real power does not
come from the Russian Constitution or from the fact that he is the
commander in chief of the Russian military, intelligence
and security forces. If that were really the case, then the Russian
elites, which are still largely pro-western, would have found a way to
topple him a long time ago, with the assistance of Uncle Sam if needed.
No, is real power is in the undeniable fact that
the Russian people recognize him not only as their leader, but also as
their representative, if you wish, at the helm of the Russian state and
in international affairs. There is a personal trust, a personal
political capital, that the Russian people have given
Vladimir Putin which sets him aside from all other Russian political
figures. This feeling is so strong that even a lot of former political
opponents have now become his supporters and that those who still openly
oppose him do that with a great deal of difficulty
and personal discomfort.
This personal authority of Putin does
not, however, extend to Medvedev or, even less so, to the Russian
government. I would argue that the Russian government is largely
unpopular, as is the Russian Duma, but the lack of viable
alternatives to the power of the “United Russia” Party makes this lack
of popularity almost irrelevant.
If we take the word “monarchy” in its
original meaning as “power of one” and if we recall that many Czars were
personally popular even when their regimes were not, we could say that
Putin’s rule is a kind of very traditional Russian
“neo-monarchy” and that Putin has found a way to combine the external
forms of democracy with the internal characteristics of Russian
monarchy. Interestingly, the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has decided
to create a personal guard for Vladimir Putin (you
can read about this here).
In order to comply with the law,
these personal guards all resigned their commission and offered their
services to Vladimir Putin as a person, not to the Russian President.
Needless to say, the so-called “Russian
experts” in the West dismiss it all as being sign of the Putin’s
“authoritarian” rule and characterize him as a “strongman” at best and a
“dictator” at worst. In truth, fear and hatred are
very poor advisors and it is little wonder that they get it so wrong.
But then, “Russian experts” are not paid to understand Russia, they are
only paid to demonize her.
So where, or what, is Russia today?
At this point in time, I would say that
Russia is both a promise and a process. As a promise, she is very vague,
there are numerous different ideas of what “real Russia” was or should
be. She is an ideal which is more perceived
than understood. As a process, Russia is much more unambiguous:
de-colonization, sovereignization, resistance and the unapologetic
proclamation of a unique, different, civilizational model. The days when
Russians were mindlessly aping the West are apparently
truly over. Some say that the future of Russia is in the South
(Caucasus, Central-Asia, Middle-East, Indian subcontinent), some see the
future of Russia in the East (Siberia and Far East Asia, especially
China) while some see it in the North (Siberia, again,
and the Arctic).
But nobody sees it in the West any more.
Of course, this is not how many Europeans
see Russia’s intentions. The Poles and the Balts, especially, keep
themselves awake at night with nightmares featuring a Russian invasion
of a conventional or “hybrid” kind. This reminds
me of a Russian joke which goes like this: a man is walking down the
street when a woman on the balcony suddenly screams “Help! This man is
about to rape me!!!”. The baffled man looks up and says, “Lady, you are
crazy. I have no intention of raping you. Besides,
I am here in the street and you are above me on the balcony,” to which
the woman replies, “Maybe, but I am about to come down!”. Just like this
woman, the Poles and Balts, maybe moved a deep sense of guilt mixed in
with an old inferiority complex are strenuously
trying to convince themselves that Russia really badly wants to invade
them. Russia, of course, has exactly zero need for more land, and even
less need for the rabidly hostile and frankly psychotic population of
these countries. In reality, the Russian plan
for these countries is simple: simply buy the Baltics states and let
the Poles and the Germans enjoy their traditional love-fest. From a
Russian point of view, these countries and people are not coveted prizes
but useless liabilities.
In contrast, Russia cannot ignore the
Ukraine, especially not a Nazi-occupied one. As for the rest of Europe,
it will always remain an important economic market for Russia and a
place Russians will enjoy visiting, especially southern
Europe and the Mediterranean. The very last thing Russia needs is any
kind of war, especially a useless and potentially dangerous one with the
West. Finally, it is likely that Russia will seek to establish close
relationships with those southern European countries
which really never wanted to pursue any anti-Russian policies,
especially Greece and Serbia. So, while not being a priority anymore,
the West will never become irrelevant either.
The hardest and also the most interesting
thing to try to guess is what Russia will become internally. Probably
not a monarchy, at least not in the foreseeable future. The most recent
poll strongly suggests that a
majority of Russians do not want to trade a democratic republican system for a monarchy.
Besides, in a country where truly religious Orthodox Christians are a
minority a monarchy really would make little sense. The problem with the
current system is that
it is entirely based upon the person of Vladimir Putin. In fact, I
would argue that there is no “current system” at all, there is only one
person, Vladimir Putin who, while immensely popular, has to deal with
all of the many Russian problems is the “manual
mode” – meaning personally. As soon as something escapes his personal
attention things begin to go wrong. This is simply not a viable system.
And just to make things worse, there is no credible successor to Putin
in sight. Should something happen to Putin
tomorrow
morning the crisis hitting Russia would be huge. Add to this that
Russians have a long history of good leaders succeeded by mediocre ones
and you see how serious a threat the current “one man show” is for the
Russian future. I would therefore argue
that the development of a truly Russian political system (as opposed to
an individual ruler) ought to be considered as one of the most
important strategic priorities for those Russians who do not want their
country to, yet again, become a western colony. Alas,
the struggle between the “Atlantic Integrationists” (the Medvedev
people) and the “Eurasian Sovereignists” (the Putin people) leaves very
little time for that kind of endeavor.
So yes, “Russia is back”, but she is
still very much wobbling on her feet, and unsure as to where to go next.
Right now, her future depends on the fate of one man and that is
exceedingly dangerous.
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