Bertrand Daily Report
The War For Our Mind & Soul Continues
Subject: Forecasting Escalation Scenario Of Conflict In Syria
April 9th, 2017
"In
simulating a possible armed conflict between the Armed Forces of the
involved countries, we can state with some confidence that it will
commence with a series of provocative actions. Possibilities include air
strikes of “unknown aircraft” on civilians, the use of chemical
weapons, destruction of humanitarian convoys, “shooting” at military
aircraft or ships of the coalition forces, and possibly even
encompassing their complete destruction. The United States and Western
countries will undoubtedly accuse the Syrian or Russian Armed Forces of
any such action in this regard."
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The Shayrat Incident: What is Donald Trump thinking???
By J.Hawk
Given
the complexities of both international and domestic US politics, the US
cruise missile strike on the Shayrat Airbase in the Homs Province in
Syria cannot be subjected to causal reductionism. It is highly unlikely
the decision was made on the basis of a single set of considerations.
Rather, it was the outcome of several overlapping sets of problems with
which the Trump Administration is coping right now. One can clearly
argue and disagree over the relative importance of these factors.
However, one should not deny all of them are present in the mind of
Donald Trump (because yes, he has one) and in the minds of his cabinet
and advisers. So, in no particular order:
“Only Nixon could go to China”
That’s
because of Nixon’s impeccable McCarthyite credentials which meant that
no matter what he did, he would not be treated as an appeaser at home.
Even, in effect, giving away all of South Vietnam did not hurt his
standing with the conservatives. Trump has no such credentials–he is a
“Russian agent”, remember? But now that, in the words of Fareed Zakaria,
Trump has become president, that cloud seems to be dissipating.
Furthermore, even Nixon felt that before engaging in Vietnam
negotiations he needed to escalate the war, which he did with enormous
human costs. One of the demands of the US hegemony is the maintenance of
the fiction that, no matter what the negotiation is, the US always
negotiates from the position of strength. The demonstrated US ability to
strike a Syrian military target in spite of Russian objections–though
with a warning of several hours which evidently was necessary to avert a
Russian retaliation–gives Trump the ability to reclaim that position of
strength in the eyes of the US public. This is admittedly a rather
optimistic interpretation–we’ll see whether the Trump team uses it in
order to actually pursue negotiations in good faith. The calm Russian
reaction so far, which after all included non-interference with the US
strike, suggests that maybe the Kremlin understands Trump’s predicament.
The reason you don’t generally hit runways is that they are easy and inexpensive to quickly fix (fill in and top)!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 8, 2017
China is watching
With
China’s president being in the US even as the cruise missiles were
raining on Syria, one can’t help thinking he was also an intended
recipient of this message. Let’s not forget the US is placing ABM
systems in South Korea and is threatening unilateral military action
against North Korea unless China does something to make North Korea
behave in accordance with US preferences.
The Swamp drained Trump
It
is also unquestionable that Trump has been very effectively “tamed” by
the establishment. Nearly every one of his promises is now highly
unlikely to be implemented, be it health care reform, tax reform,
immigration reform, boosting manufacturing, the trillion dollar
infrastructure program…and the end to the war in Syria combined with
reconciliation with Russia. While that does not necessarily mean that
neoconservatives, neoliberals, and globalists have entirely taken over
his administration, it does mean the administration has to appease them
by diluting his original objectives and perhaps even sacrificing some
goals entirely in order to achieve others. On the other hand, surely
Trump is aware that embracing the Hillary agenda in its entirety is a
surefire way to go down in history as a universally reviled president.
Time is not your friend
The
whole spectacle smells of desperation. An obviously false-flag use of
chemical weapons is pinned on the Syrian government and, within 63 hours,
on the basis of no evidence whatsoever save a few social media posts,
off go the cruise missiles. Such a flimsy premise for military action is
unheard of even by US standards–the invasion of Iraq, the destruction
of Libya, even the imposition of sanctions on Russia over Ukraine were
all preceded by a much longer process, with considerably greater effort
given to provide at least the fig leaf of legality. Here there was
nothing of the sort, which prompted Bolivia to express what no doubt
many were thinking at the UN by displaying a photo of the infamous
“Colin Powell and the vial of anthrax” photo during the UNSC
deliberations. So why the hurry? Part of it no doubt has to do with the
fact the rebels are losing. There is no plausible way, short of a direct
overland NATO intervention, to turn the tide of the war. So it is up to
the Western diplomacy to snatch a victory out of a jaws of hybrid war
defeat. But the later the negotiations commence, the worse the starting
position of West-backed groups.
The
other reason for haste is the need to cut down on international
commitments in order to focus on the domestic agenda which, in the US,
means a major reduction in government services and expenditures. Trump
Administration’s provocative actions in Syria are par for the course.
They are directly comparable to the harsh rhetoric directed at Europe
(the aim there also being the reduction of US security commitments) and
the saber-rattling on North Korea.
Opening Bid
Just
because time is not on your side does not mean you can show weakness by
appearing over-eager to offer concessions–in fact, rather the opposite.
Both Trump and Tillerson are hard-nosed negotiators who know how
operate under pressure. Trump, in particular, is a billionnaire largely
by the dint of being an obstinate, almost unreasonable negotiator not
afraid of brinksmanship. The said can be said of Tillerson’s tenure at
Exxon. These two are not in the business of giving “freebies” to the
competitors, and any letting down of the guard in Syria and elsewhere
would be just that–a freebie. Setting up an unrealistic set of initial
demands is part of Trump’s negotiating style, one that we have also seen
in his rhetoric aimed at China and in the “bill” for NATO services
given to Angela Merkel. Any concession down from “Assad must go” will
therefore have to be paid for with Russian and Syrian concessions
elsewhere. As to what the acceptable ground for compromise might be was
suggested by the notes of moderation emanating from the Trump team
itself following the strike. Trump’s own statement that followed the
missile strikes did not call for Assad’s ouster. In other words, that’s
clearly not a non-negotiable US demand at this point–had Trump said
“Assad must go”, it would have all but killed any prospect of a
negotiated settlement, just as it did for the Obama Administration which
painted itself into a corner. Had the Tomahawk strike actually caused
serious damage or killed Russian troops, there likewise would not have
any possibility of forward movement in the foreseeable future. Trump so
far as avoided burning his bridges, which gives cause for guarded
optimism. But that does not mean that the future negotiations will be
easy or bring the war in Syria to a rapid conclusion.
From The Desk of Capt. Dave Bertrand (Ret.)
Int'l Airline Freight Captain on the DC-8 stretch jet / B-727
series 200 jet & First Officer DC-6 prop & DC-10 wide-body
jet), 72' to 76' U.S. Army Veteran (Military Police) 'Comms Sergeant'
(Korea), Law Enforcement (State), DHS Trained Counter-Terrorism
Instructor for HWW, Border Security Specialist, Political Analyst and Activist to help "Make America Great Again" while exposing the "Deep State" shadow government enemy.
My
mission is to slice through the propaganda, encourage everyone to
write and share important news among our network of patriots, military,
law enforcement and selected news media sources (we trust). We are the
pulse of America and we will prevail.
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