THE FOUNDATION
"[T]here are particular moments in public affairs, when the people stimulated by some irregular passion, or some illicit advantage, or misled by the artful misrepresentations of interested men, may call for measures which they themselves will afterwards be the most ready to lament and condemn." —James Madison, Federalist No. 63, 1788FEATURED RIGHT ANALYSIS
Best of the First Republican Confab
By Mark Alexander
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I commend Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace for asking many good and tough questions — which you would not have heard from CNN moderators if only Democrats were on stage. I note there were some fratricidal bait questions, but most of the candidates avoided attacking each other, and focused on the serious issues threatening Liberty — the result of Barack Obama's failed domestic policies, and the abysmal failure of Obama/Clinton foreign policies.
In the next 72 hours, the media will be saturated with polls, but as I noted Wednesday in my introduction for this first round matchup of Republicans, "Polls at this stage of a primary are not particularly relevant. I equate them with the weather in Alaska: If you don’t like it, wait 15 minutes." But reputable polls are somewhat more relevant now that all the candidates have appeared on stage.
I have only one observation about the debate between the second-tier candidates. In my assessment there was one candidate who absolutely shined above all others, and that would be Carly Fiorina, who has earned her way into the first tier. Among other things, she is the "corporate" alternative to Don Trump.
The most consequential question of the whole night was the opener from Bret Baier, who asked for a show of hands from anyone who would not pledge their support for the eventual nominee and instead, run as an independent — and in all probability deliver the presidency to their Democrat opponent. As I noted in "The Trump Card" two weeks ago, "Trump has the potential of being a spoiler in 2016 if his populist campaign lasts beyond 2015 [because] he is a textbook pathological narcissist. He could launch a third ticket and hand the election to Hillary Clinton."
Predictably, Trump was the only person on stage who raised his hand in response to Baier's question, and I will leave his supporters to consider the implications.
So in order of their poll rankings entering the first debate, here are just a few remarks that say something significant about each candidate, followed by my own brief assessment of who gained ground on the main stage. (You can read a full annotated transcript of the debate is posted at The Washington Post.)
Donald Trump: "I think the big problem this country has is being politically correct. ... We don’t have time for tone. We have to go out and get the job done. ... We need to build a wall, and it has to be built quickly. And I don’t mind having a big, beautiful door in that wall so that people to come into this country legally. ... [A single-payer health care system] works in Canada, it works incredibly well in Scotland. ... I gave to many people, before this, before two months ago, I was a businessman. I give to everybody. When they call, I give. And do you know what? When I need something from them two years later, three years later, I call them, they are there for me. I’ll tell you what, with Hillary Clinton, I said, 'Be at my wedding,' and she came to my wedding. You know why? She didn’t have a choice because I gave."
Note: I chose these remarks because Trump's popularity is based almost solely on his indifference to "PC" and "tone." However, the most telling thing about Trump was not in his answers, but in this question from Kelly: "Mr. Trump, in 1999, you said you were, quote, 'very pro-choice,' even supporting partial-birth abortion. You favored an assault weapons ban as well. In 2004, you said in most cases you identified as a Democrat. Even in this campaign, your critics say you often sound more like a Democrat than a Republican, calling several of your opponents on the stage things like clowns and puppets. When did you actually become a Republican?" In response, Trump said, "As far as being a Republican is concerned, I come from a place, New York City, which is virtually, I mean, it is almost exclusively Democrat. And I have really started to see some of the negatives."
Jeb Bush: "I’m going to have to earn this. Maybe the barrier — the bar’s even higher for me. That’s fine. I’ve got a record in Florida. I’m proud of my dad, and I’m certainly proud of my brother... I am my own man. I governed as a conservative, and I governed effectively. And the net effect was, during my eight years, 1.3 million jobs were created. We left the state better off because I applied conservative principles in a purple state the right way, and people rose up. ... The new normal of 2% [GDP] that the Left is saying you can’t do anything about is so dangerous for our country. There’s six million people living in poverty today, more than when Barack Obama got elected. 6.5 million people are working part-time, most of whom want to work full-time. We’ve created rules and taxes on top of every aspiration of people, and the net result is we’re not growing fast, income is not growing. A 4% growth strategy means you fix a convoluted tax code. You get in and you change every aspect of regulations that are job killers. You get rid of ObamaCare and replace it with something that doesn’t suppress wages and kill jobs."
Scott Walker: "Let’s be clear, we should be talking about Hillary Clinton ... because everywhere in the world that Hillary Clinton touched is more messed up today than before she and the president [came to power]. ... It’s sad to think right now, but probably the Russian and Chinese government know more about Hillary Clinton’s email server than do the members of the United States Congress. ... This is not just bad with Iran, this is bad with ISIS. It is tied together, and once and for all, we need a leader who’s going to stand up and do something about it."
Mike Huckabee: "It seems like this election has been a whole lot about a person who’s very high in the polls, that doesn’t have a clue about how to govern. A person who has been filled with scandals, and who could not lead. Of course, I’m talking about Hillary Clinton. ... The problem is we have a Wall Street-to-Washington access of power that has controlled the political climate. The donor class feeds the political class who does the dance that the donor class wants. And the result is the federal government keeps getting bigger. Every person on this stage who has been a governor will tell that you the biggest fight they had was not the other party. Wasn’t even the legislature. It was the federal government, who continually put mandates on the states that we had to suck up and pay for. And the fact is there are a lot of things happening at the federal level that are absolutely beyond the jurisdiction of the Constitution."
Ben Carson: "America became a great nation early on not because it was flooded with politicians, but because it was flooded with people who understood the value of personal responsibility, hard work, creativity, innovation. And that’s what will get us on the right track now, as well. ... If I was trying to destroy this country, what I would do is find a way to drive wedges between all the people, drive the debt to an unsustainable level, and then step off the stage as a world leader and let our enemies increase while we decreased our [military capability]."
Ted Cruz: "I believe the American people are looking for someone to speak the truth. If you’re looking for someone to go to Washington, to go along to get along, to agree with the career politicians in both parties who get in bed with the lobbyists and special interests, then I ain’t your guy. ... We see lots of 'campaign conservatives.' But if we’re going to win in 2016, we need a consistent conservative, someone who has been a fiscal conservative, a social conservative, a national security conservative. ... We need a commander in chief that speaks the truth. We will not defeat radical Islamic terrorism so long as we have a president unwilling the utter the words 'radical Islamic terrorism.'"
Marco Rubio: "This election cannot be a résumé competition. It’s important to be qualified, but if this election is a résumé competition, then Hillary Clinton’s going to be the next president because she’s been in office and in government longer than anybody else running here tonight. ... Here’s what this election better be about: This election better be about the future, not the past. It better be about the issues our nation and the world is facing today, not simply the issues we once faced. ... God has blessed us. He has blessed the Republican Party with some very good candidates. The Democrats can’t even find one. ... What I have advocated is that we pass law in this country that says all human life at every stage of its development is worthy of protection. In fact, I think that law already exists. It is called the Constitution of the United States. Future generations will look back at this history of our country and call us barbarians for murdering millions of babies who we never gave the chance to live. ... I run for president because I believe that we can’t just save the American dream; we can expand it to reach more people and change more lives than ever before."
Rand Paul: "This is what’s wrong. [Mr. Trump] buys and sells politicians of all stripes... He’s already hedging his bet on the Clintons. He’s already hedging his bets because he’s used to buying politicians. ... The Fourth Amendment was what we fought the Revolution over! John Adams said it was the spark that led to our war for independence, and I’m proud of standing for the Bill of Rights, and I will continue to stand for the Bill of Rights. ... I don’t want my marriage or my guns registered in Washington."
Chris Christie: "I’m the only person on this stage who’s actually filed applications under the Patriot Act, who has gone before the ... Foreign Intelligence Service court, who has prosecuted and investigated and jailed terrorists in this country after September 11th. ... This is not theoretical to me. I went to the funerals. We lost friends of ours in the Trade Center that day. ... I will make no apologies, ever, for protecting the lives and the safety of the American people. We have to give more tools to our folks to be able to do that, not fewer, and then trust those people and oversee them to do it the right way. ... If we don’t deal with [entitlement reform], it will bankrupt our country or lead to massive tax increases — neither one that we want in this country."
John Kasich: "The court has ruled [on same-sex marriage], and I said we’ll accept it. And guess what, I just went to a wedding of a friend of mine who happens to be gay. Because somebody doesn’t think the way I do, doesn’t mean that I can’t care about them or can’t love them."
Finally, before giving my assessment of this first matchup, I am going to do what no other analyst will do today and disclose my own bias. I come into this first round thinking that the most competitive presidential ticket in 2016 would be Walker/Rubio. I am not set on that ticket. That being said, I have subjectively rated the performance of each candidate as either better than I expected, flat or worse than I expected, going into the debate.
So in order of their poll rankings entering the first debate: Donald Trump, flat; Jeb Bush, flat; Scott Walker, flat; Mike Huckabee, better; Ben Carson, flat; Ted Cruz, better; Marco Rubio, better; Rand Paul, worse; Chris Christie, worse; and John Kasich, worse.
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TOP RIGHT HOOKS
With Economy Running as Expected, Will Rates Rise?
Welcome to the new normal. Just as The Wall Street Journal predicted, the U.S. added 215,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate remained at 5.3%. For the last few months, the economy has been plodding along, adding 200,000 or so jobs every month, and if you were to tally the words used in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' press releases, "unchanged" would rank high. The labor force participation rate sits at 62.6% — with a record 93,770,000 Americans not working. The great machine of the American economy still has not begun to roar after the 2008 crash. Yet to the Federal Reserve Bank, there may be some encouraging numbers, enough for them to possibly pull the lever and raise interest rates in the coming months. According to BLS's July jobs report, the U-6 measure of unemployment edged down 0.1 percentage point to 10.4% — a number well above pre-recession levels. Wages, an economic indicator lagging for months despite job growth, increased 5 cents to a $24.99 hourly wage for the average American worker. Furthermore, BLS revised up the jobs numbers for May and June, saying there were an additional 14,000 jobs added in those two months. This may be enough for the Fed to decide that it's time raise interest rates. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has news conferences scheduled for Sept. 12, Dec. 16 and March 16. Look for "unchanged" to change.Comment | Share
Russia Hacks Pentagon, Which Can't Find 'Reset' Button
Russia is “our number one geopolitical foe," Mitt Romney said repeatedly in 2012. Barack Obama dismissed it out of hand at the time, saying, "Russia is a regional power that is threatening some of its immediate neighbors, not out of strength, but out of weakness. Russia's actions are a problem [but] they don't pose the number one national security threat to the United States." He both underestimated the problem and misstated Romney's assertion. Instead, he and his administration — led in part by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — pursued a strategy of what they arrogantly called "smart power." That included the infamous "reset" button Hillary presented to her Russian counterpart. She later boasted of it being a "brilliant stroke" that "succeeded." But fast forward to today, and U.S. officials say Russia recently launched a "sophisticated cyberattack" against the Pentagon's email system. Specifically, an unclassified system used by some 4,000 employees of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The attack was detected in July (though only just reported) and the network remains offline as the Pentagon works to seal the breach. Maybe they just need to fix it with another "reset" button.Comment | Share
Texas' Voter ID Law Invalidated; but Is There a Silver Lining?
A significant ruling was made this week regarding Texas' voter ID law, though there does appear to be somewhat of a silver lining. The Wall Street Journal has the lowdown: "A federal appeals court on Wednesday ruled Texas voter-identification requirements must be relaxed because they illegally obstruct blacks and Hispanics from casting ballots. But the decision, by the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans, also said a lower court erred in finding that the Texas Legislature intended its 2011 voter-ID law to harm minorities. The appeals court returned the case to the district judge to reconsider that question under standards more favorable to the state." And that's important. The Journal explains, "[A] finding [of discriminatory intent] can lead to the invalidation of the entire law. A finding of disparate impact, however, may result in a less stringent remedy, the court said. While it is possible the district court could still conclude the legislature intended to harm minorities, the Fifth Circuit suggested such a finding would be unlikely. So it laid out suggestions for a remedy the district judge could consider in addressing the voter-ID law's impact on minorities while still respecting the legislature's aim of reducing 'the risk of in-person voter fraud by strengthening the forms of identification presented for voting.'" In summary, despite the Fifth Circuit striking down the law based on "disparate impact" nonsense, at least the judges didn't perpetuate the myth that the law is intentionally racist. Let's hope the lower court agrees.Comment | Share
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TODAY AT PATRIOTPOST.US
- ANALYSIS: Baltimore Homicide Spike Is the Harvest of Leftism
- Schumer Bucks Obama on Iran
- Before Running, Trump Asked Clinton for Advice
- SEC Creates Rule to Further Progressive's Wage Agenda
- Three Arrested for Plotting Anti-Jade Helm Operation
BEST OF RIGHT OPINION
- Charles Krauthammer: Just Who Is Helping Iran's Hard-Liners?
- Mona Charen: The Core Dishonesty of Abortion Defenders
- Arnold Ahlert: Obama's Lies About Bush and Iraq
TOP HEADLINES
- Alabama Third State to Defund Planned Parenthood
- Pentagon's Early Training of Syrian Rebels Seen as 'Failure'
- Liberal Seattle a Step Closer to New Gun Tax
OPINION IN BRIEF
Charles Krauthammer: "It is only because so many Democrats are defecting [from the Iran nuclear deal] that Obama gave [a] speech in the first place. And why he tried so mightily to turn the argument into a partisan issue — those warmongering Republicans attacking a president offering peace in our time. Obama stooped low, accusing the Republican caucus of making 'common cause' with the Iranian 'hard-liners' who shout 'Death to America.' Forget the gutter ad hominem. This is delusional. Does Obama really believe the Death-to-America hard-liners are some kind of KKK fringe? They are the government, for God’s sake — the entire state apparatus of the Islamic Republic from the Revolutionary Guards to the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei who for decades have propagated, encouraged and applauded those very same 'Death to America' chants. Common cause with the Iranian hard-liners? Who more than Obama? For years, they conduct a rogue nuclear weapons program in defiance of multiple Security Council declarations of its illegality backed by sanctions and embargoes. Obama rewards them with a treaty that legitimates their entire nuclear program... With this agreement, this repressive, intolerant, aggressive, supremely anti-American regime — the chief exporter of terror in the world — is stronger and more entrenched than it has ever been. Common cause, indeed."Comment | Share
SHORT CUTS
Insight: "We are students of words; we are shut up in schools, and colleges, and recitation rooms, for ten or fifteen years, and come out at last with a bag of wind, a memory of words, and do not know a thing." —Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803-1882)Upright: "I really don’t know if fiery debates like Thursday evening’s will wind up building interest and excitement in the Republican field, or wearing and tearing it down. I don’t know if we’ll look back on this as the beginning of a making or a breaking. Maybe the former. Anyway, it was alive. I wonder if Hillary Clinton is wondering how she can look alive." —Peggy Noonan
Alpha Jackass: "Essentially, when you watch [the GOP] debate, just imagine if you are one of the wealthiest people in this country and extremely greedy and selfish, and you're going to have 10 candidates more or less talking about your needs and not the needs of the working people.” —Bernie Sanders
Braying Jenny: “I'm tired of women being shamed and blamed and dismissed… When you attack Planned Parenthood, you attack women's health. And when you attack women's health, you attack America's health.” —Hillary Clinton
A hit from the Left: "I think [Jon] Stewart’s show demonstrated the decline and vacuity of contemporary comedy. I cannot stand that smug, snarky, superior tone. I hated the fact that young people were getting their news through that filter of sophomoric snark. ... Stewart is certainly a highly successful TV personality, but I think he has debased political discourse." —liberal academic dissident and feminist social critic Camille Paglia
Late-night humor: "A new study came out and it finds that Michelle Obama’s 'Let’s Move' program may have caused people to actually gain weight. Apparently many mistook the slogan to mean, 'Let’s move next door to a Cinnabon.'" —Conan O'Brien
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Semper Vigilans Fortis Paratus et Fidelis!
Managing Editor Nate Jackson
Join us in daily prayer for our Patriots in uniform — Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines and Coast Guardsmen — standing in harm's way in defense of Liberty, and for their families.
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