Morning Briefing
For September 27, 2012
1. Doom, Gloom, and Polls
Both sides in Campaign 2012 have a very unhealthy fixation on daily tracking polls. The media is using the polls as an excuse to not cover the growing disaster in Libya and instead focus on Romney. The right is using the polls as a tool to reinforce their disgust with the media. It is getting so bad, some are even now accusing RealClearPolitics of gaming the polls for Barack Obama.
This is not healthy for any side. I’ve been in politics long enough to know that the louder one side gets complaining about the polls, the more likely it is that this is the side that, in reality, actually is losing. Go back to 2004 and you will find Democrats trying to destroy the credibility of any pollster who dared show George Bush winning. Heck, go back to 2010 and look at the attacks then on Scott Rasmussen, who accurately predicted the outcome.
Here’s a simple truth: the polls and polling trends are by and large accurate, but — and pay attention to the but — the polls are overestimating Democratic turnout. Those polls that presume less than a 2008 Democratic wave, which I think is most reasonable, have the race very close, though pretty much all of them have Romney still behind. The reality is that Mitt Romney is behind, but that does not mean this thing is over. It is close and Romney can very much still win this election. Finally, at long last, it also seems Romney has a message that can resonate.
In the obsession on polls, people are missing the Republican voter registration advantage . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
2. Romney and Obama Sing From The Same Hymnal on Emergency Room Care
A sure sign of political silly season: seeing a whole lot of Obama supporters reflexively pushing the same attacks on Romney with the same overheated rhetoric at the same time on points that don’t stand up to even the most modest logical scrutiny. You’d think, given the clear and obvious points of disagreement between these two tickets on some issues, that would be the focus, but no…
Here’s Romney on 60 Minutes the other night . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
3. Mia Love (R CAND, UT-04) targeted with vicious racist hate mail.
Come, let me reveal a deep, dark secret of the Mia Love campaign: she’s black.
Did you care? Can’t say that I care much, either: what I care about is whether she has the resources and ability to defeat Jim Matheson in this year’s UT-04 Congressional race. The possibility is tantalizingly there: and apparently it’s worrying Utahn Democrats. . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
4. CAUGHT ON TAPE: Democrat Congressional Candidate Tussles with Cameraman & Takes Camera
In the world of politics, trackers have become a part of campaign life. Sometimes they are professionals and sometimes they are concerned citizens who are simply filming and happen to catch something on camera.
YouTube has become the stomping grounds for pushing video out that reveals sides of politicians that they’d rather the public didn’t see. Yet, amazingly enough, these candidates never seem to . . . please click here for the rest of the post →
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